Between Brussels and Gazprom

Energy war under cover of worldwide crisis

2009-04-21T06:31:00.000-07:00

The title sounds heavily, especialy when you look at latest European weather forecast and unusualy hot spring in Central Europe, but I did not find any better expression for latest development on energy field in and around Central Europe. With Czech EU presidency closing in shame and disgust, Poles are again rising their voice about energy security with fresh support from Finland. Finnish President Tarja Halonen refused to give at meeting with her Russian counterpart a blind cheque on Nord Stream pipeline project. Dmitry Medvedev also offered to G8, G20 and selected neighbour partners offer of new scheme of energy cooperation, which is - according to the first reports - going against European Energy charter, basic EU document which is kind of a counterweight of the interest of Russian Gazprom.
Russia has problems with its southern pipeline, South Stream, due to crisis there is lack of resources and also politicial support is waining in allied states (especialy resignation of Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany was blow to Russian plans). Meanwhile, there is stronger push with northern pipe. Gazprom and its German partner are seeking (after Netherlanders) French company GDF Suez to get involved in Nord Stream and bypass Central Europe and Ukraine completely.
The only obstacle (beside unclear financing of project, which is getting more expensive almost every minute) is study on environmental impact of Nord Stream in Baltic Sea. This is argument used by Swedes and Finns and it is pushing Russians to threats that they will abolish Nord Stream at all and they will build liquefaction plants for LNG.
Moscow knows very well how to play against internal divisons in the EU on energy field. Russian companies are even at times of crisis intensifying their efforts to get to downstream, as close to European customer as possible. Surgutneftegaz, company close to Kremlin, used fragile political situation in Hungary to get 21 % of Hungarian giant MOL. There are talks that Lukoil is searching for refinery capacities through acquiring shares in Polish PKN Orlen and here in Prague there is almost no week when we in media would not get invitation to concert or reception sponsored by any Russian energy company.
EU was able to answer only with deal signed with Ukraine to overhaul Ukrainian pipeline system. This deal angered Kremlin quite a lot, but it is not that kind of united response on energy field Brussels should produce. Let's see what will Eastern partnership summit and EU-Russia summit bring.
Simply, in words of one Czech top diplomat: "They are very professional, very well prepared and if EU would not unite on approach towards Russia, there are going to be very tough times in dealing with Russia on energy (and any other) issue."
We should not forget even at times of political turmoil (Czech case) or economic downturn (Hungaria, Baltics) in what kind of neighbourhood we are living.

Ad: Atractive job offer or Looking for Prime Minister in Central Europe

2009-03-25T07:05:00.000-07:00

Advertisement (not payed):

Country in Central Europe in longterm political crises and awaiting deep economical downturn is looking for capable and active Prime Minister.

Tasks:
- to introduce unpopular reforms, especialy clean mess in health care, education and state budget
- to prepare detailed plan of introducing euro, which will be realistic one
- to stabilize political situation to extent that will be possible to anticipate what will happen next month
- to calm down foreign investors
- to beat popular and populistic leader of opposition to his total defeat
- to secure victory for party which will nominate him in next elections (whenever they might be)

Qualifications and experience required:
- basic education
- ability to keep mouth shut about manipulations behind scenes even after fourth beer of third barack palinka
- ability to act quickly without deeper thoughts about problems
- loyalty to team of advisors which will be nominated by someone else
- a great respect towards minorities, especialy Roma, pensioners, members of trade unions, women, Greens, journialists and economists

Offer:
- remuneration according to state approved bureaucratic postcommunist system of salaries
- fixed term contract
- office with nice view on important European river
- a routine press conferencies with very curious journalists
- cordial hatred of public and political partners, which could be demonstrated either as throwed egg, or as publishing of intimate details from family life or from communist secret police archives
- Audi A8 as business car (with driver)

Referencies:
- Mirek Topolánek, nabrezi Edvarda Beneše 4, Prague 1
- Ferenc Gyurcsány, Kossuth tér 1-3, Budapest

Hungarian version of this advertisement see blog: http://tudtad.blog.hu
Thanks to Andras for translating for me Hungarian original, which I expanded for general Central European purposes after (a little bit unexpected) events in Prague.

Czech crisis explained with personal details

2009-03-25T05:07:00.000-07:00

Some friends from Poland, Macedonia, Brussels and elswhere has asked me what will happen now in Czech Republic after government was voted out. To a big extent result of vote in parliament was surprise to everybody, therefore there is still not clear plan B. The most probable scenario is that government will govern in demission until the end of Czech EU presidency and meanwhile both biggest political parties, Topolanek's ODS and oposition social democrats (CSSD) will find any agreement on untimely elections. At least, this is wish of Mr. Paroubek, head of social democrats.
Many depends on what will president Klaus do and also what party ODS do, because due to constitution, there are three chances to form government, but without clear deadlines, therefore government in demission could govern many, many months.
For Topolanek and ODS would be better to have untimely elections this summer, popularity is rising due to EU presidency, seen in Czechia more less like success.
For Paroubek, autumn or spring next year are better and meanwhile there might be, according to his plan (supported most probably by president) some kind of weak ODS government or simple technical cabinet which will not be able to make any important decisions about privatisations or reforms in health care or anything like that.
Problem is that there is not clear majority in parliament, thereforem for solution there is necessary both big parties to agree on (to have early elections is very hard to agree technically). Tuesday's vote was result of rebellion of two Green party MPs (two ladies) and two ODS dissidents, one of them, Vlastimil Tlusty, was even minister in the first Topolanek government, but they disaggreed. Rumours say that present fiance and mother of his son, also MP from ODS, was previously fiance of Mr. Tlusty, then you can guess about real personal reasons behind that.
Other ODS dissident voice, Jan Schwippel, has decided after talk with President Klaus, who is opposing proEU stance of Mr. Topolanek and they also personaly disaggree on many things (and Mom of Mr. Schwippel, who was advising him, is head of ODS local bureau at region where Mr. Tlusty is from)
As result, you can see that failure of government is result of weak majority and rebellion inside government camp, not result of any consistent policy of leftist opposition.

Bruno in Latvia, or optimistic story from crisis

2009-03-12T09:13:00.001-07:00

Optimistic news from the midst of crisis: his name is Bruno Medveckis, is about forty years old, has bold head and real azbuka tatoo on his left hand and is not smiling. He drives taxi in Riga and speaks in one words. "Ponjal," said in Russian beign said address. "Understand."
But he did not understand and went to other place. When we clarified where I want to go, he has switched off taxameter and he drove to right place, switching taxameter properly during drive at place where he should go if he understood properly earlier. He was driving like crazy, very quickly, so my appointment was not so late. Price was ok, therefore I was shocked comparing Bruno's service with his Prague's colleagues.
Latvia has new government, which will try to save country. Estonia's Prime Minister has announced that introduction of euro is possible next year and Lithuania's politicians are fighting againts rumours about devaluation. Three Baltic countries with three open and formerly skyrocketing economies are approaching crisis differently, because of policies of their elites during last twenty years.
It is kind of model for all Europe. Even we are in the EU, our problems are slightly different. We like to consider ourselves Central, not Eastern Europe. Latvia has 15th government since regaining independence in 1991. Cuts in budget will be very painful, people got used to high standards (and loans). The same with Estonians, but difference is that - even in Estonia governments are changing quite rapidly - there is wider "economical" consensus on what is right to do. This is why Estonia has special fund from better times and no prospect of bancruptcy, even also Estonian budget is cutting for ten percent.
Baltics are kind of experimental model for the rest of EU. Flat tax, quick growth, open economies, now deep fall. Different nations, different approaches. I would wish success to all of them, their countries are very nice, but political style and leadership is totally different - and also chances to succeed in times of crisis.
New prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis has told me just hard words about future cuts and that he is prepared to be very unpopular politician (see video here). Mood is gloomy among Latvians.
But hope survives even in Latvia, where now many people just shut their mouthes and they are counting (falling) salaries and (almost nonexistent) savings and they try to figure out how to survive crisis storm.
This is why: When I was leaving Riga to airport at very early in the morning, hotel receptionist ordered taxi. Guess who was waiting for me at 4,30 a.m.. Bruno. He did not smiled, just put my suitcase in car. I put a safety belt and I was regretting that I got up so early. Normal time to Riga's airport is about half an hour, Bruno made it in fifteen minutes. And for half price of what I had paid three days earlier coming to Riga during late night flight.
The trust, the most questioned economic virtue of this global crisis, the belive that Latvians's entrepeneurial spirits survives, has remained in my head as well as business card with Bruno's mobile number in my pocket. Next time going to Riga, I call Bruno in advance.

Aftercrisis EU and future of Mr. Klaus

2009-03-04T08:24:00.000-08:00

Preparing for trip to Riga, where new government is forming to tackle the crisis, I was wondering about heated debate from last week about new border lines in Europe - who is what from which perspective. Recent crisis has shown that new, undrawn border is emerging as well as we can expect that European union after this crisis will be different.
Undrawn border has name the euro. Common currency seems to play a role of nongeopolitical buffer zone between West and East and as proof for that we can use for example plea of Hungarian Prime Minister to ease Maastricht criteria or promises of Latvian politicians to stick with lat pegged to euro with all unpleasant consequencies like higher taxes and lower salaries in state sector. For the first time since divison of Czechoslovakia Slovaks could feel better protected from outside storm than Czechs and for the first time Poland - with exception of Kaczynski twins - is really persuading itself that national currency is not sacred cow.
But what is emerging from all the mess is a necessity to change the approach from EU perspective. There is nice piece about euroscepticism and crisis times from Gideon Rachman in Financial Times (read here) to which I would only add that one of collateral results of nowadays crisis management could be new EU architecture: more united Europe.
Consequencies are unpredictable. I had pleasure to explain to group of Catalan journalists Czech debate which was quite uneasy: Spain benefited from EU membership enourmously, doubters are only among hardline nationalists in Basque country, therefore for them was not understandable why these Czechs are not so ethusiastic about EU project.
We are not all Vaclav Klaus, this is the first point. Second, for forty years we had been receiving orders from Moscow, before that from Berlin, before that twenty years of freedom and before that 300 years from Vienna. I hope that this could at least partialy explain why we are so suspicious to anybody who tryes to impose any directive upon us and why we are looking at Brussels very carefuly even with argument that "Brussels" includes also ourselves. We know ourselves, so it even more suspicious.
Czech are commited to EU project, but we do not like to show too much enthusiasm for that (Poles call this "dirty Czech pragmatism"). But new aftercrisis situation with possibly more centralised EU governance mechanisms, more tied eurozone will be new challenge not only for our eurorealism and pragmatism, but for the whole Europe. And, fortunately, Mr. Klaus does not have chance to be elected again our president - he is serving his second and last term under present constitution. But discussions about direct presidentical elections - and change of constitution - are emerging.
But what about to offer him some interesting EU post in the new European architecture? Special envoy for climate change or special lecturer on populist affairs?

Plea from Central Europe: We are not the East!

2009-02-24T12:36:00.000-08:00

Forget about geography, important is who pays its bills in euro. These countries are more or less safe. For example, Slovakia, which intoduced euro two months ago and is even in larger scale exposed to downturn in automotive industry, has better treatment then Czechia.
So, forget about geographical meaning of the East and the West. At least this is a lesson of recent turmoil on Central European financial markets followed by latest development in politics and economics. There was raised - also due to articles in such prominent publications like The Economist and Financial Times - a question, if Western analysts are aware that Czech Republic has different debt structure than, say, Hungary and that problems of Latvia are not the same like problems of Czechia. "You cannot counter the argument that geographically, Czech Republic is in the region between Latvia and Hungary," was ironic response of one Western colleague to my question what is policy of his newspaper on which it divides Europe into West and East.
I know that Czechia is for many analyst and commentators still wild East (especially, if they ever had encounter with famous Prague's taxi drivers), but from economical and structural point of view, situation here is quite different than in Baltics or in Ukraine or Serbia. For example, we had already our banking crisis in late 90s and our Consolidation bank, which siphoned toxic assets, is quoted in recent days as one of the models for solving the problems elsewhere, especialy in the US.
We are now more part of the West than the East - politicaly (EU + NATO + possible US radar base), economicaly (look at export statistics), even socialy (English as lingua franca and all the "cultural" stuff in TV or travels). So it hurts when Western analysts put you in the same basket with Ukraine, Belarus or even Tajikistan. The work we have been doing in last twenty years is somehow dishonoured...
Euro has become new division line in the harsh times of economic crisis, as I understand from my talks with some economical analysits during last few days. From that point of view, Slovakia is even further on the West and Austria is with its indebtnes (its banks exposure in postcomm countries means that debt of Austrian banks equals its 80 % of GDP) more vulnerable then, say, Czechia. Simply, we are interconnected with the Western financial system as much as with Eastern gas and oil pipelines. We are in the middle, in the Central Europe which I would consider rather special entity than easy described part of West or East.
Czech national bank today has complained about misinformation in Financial Times and The Economist about state of Czech debt (read here). Westerners could in these turbulent times cause us real damage.
I think that part of the problem is in geography and in good old cold war divison between East and West which still prevails in heads of many Westerners (as well as in Kremlin). We can agree we have in common with others that we are postcommunist countries, but definitely we are not the East. And the question is what common economical problems has Czechia with, say, Azerbaydjan. We even have very, very different structure of mortgage debt in comparison with Poland and Hungary, where in both countries there are problems with lending in Swiss francs or in euro (1/3 of Hungarian debt is in foreign currencies). Foreign currency denominated debt in Czech market is - according to Czech natinal bank - around 0,1 percent.
Two weeks ago Czech foreing minister Karel Schwarzenberg had public quarrel with his Russian counterpart Sergej Lavrov about if we are "Central" or "Eastern" Europe. The New York Times today is on the same tone like Lavrov putting us on the East (read here).
On the other side, I can only quote Timothy Garton Ash who wrote in one of his books that there are about 16 definitons of Central Europe in which there is not included only Spain, Portugal and Norway.

Lost in realpolitics: the end of radar in Czechia

2009-02-11T08:12:00.000-08:00

Hillary Clinton has said to Czech Foreing Minister Karel Schwarzenberg that issue of US antimissile defense program (and radar in Czechia) could be "reconsidered". Unofficially, Czech diplomats were told to be prepared for cancellation of plan for US base on Czech soil.
Next day Russian FM Sergej Lavrov has told to Schwarzenberg that Czechia and Poland (hosts of possible US missile defense facilities) are "Eastern Europe, not Central according to UN classification".
Being president of EU, it is not easy job for Czech diplomacy. Being message carrier between superpowers is even much worse (all the stuff is around Iran and cooperation between the US and Russia over Iranian nuclear program). But being nothing - in terms of international politics -, being only passive player waiting for decision of others, being shifted by decision of others, this is true tragedy.
Czech diplomats maybe had been playing wrong cards last year persuading themselves and journalists as well that question of US radar in Czechia is irreversible even after Democrat would win in the US. It looks like that Czechs overplayed (as many times during history) their willingness to attach themselves to any superpower: to France (and Europe in general) after 1918, to Soviet Union after 1945.
Now the US, last resort, is falling short of expectations of Czech ruling political elite. Disappointment hurts, especialy to those who invested heavily their political capital into the struggle over US base in Central Europe. There will be no special relations on link Washington-Prague or Washington-Warszaw. Only realpolitics.
Reapolitics. It was Henry Kissinger who said: "To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal." He was right, through radar (missile defense) issue Czech politicians, diplomats and journalists, who were last two years persuading Czech public that US base on Czech soil is huge gain, are given a lesson of realpolitics.
Maybe it is too early to write down another ally, Sarkozy's France is still much worse as well as Putin's Russia. But at times of global crises, of still weak Obama's administration is better to be prepared for worse and than be surprised pleasantly. Maybe, conservative ayatollahs will win June's Iranian elections so strongly and centrifuges in Natanz will work so perfectly that question of radar on Czech soil will get back sooner that we expect. But reapolitics is real.

Crisis and trust. Does Estonia has answer to all of us?

2009-02-07T08:44:00.001-08:00

I have read two interesting pieces from two interesting ladies. Naomi Klein is in her obvious doomsayer tone describing social consequencies of recent crisis through Europe and world (read here). It is short journalistic piece, therefore nobody could expect policy recommendations beside obvious "down with capitalism and capitalists". But it is worth to read it as opposit viewpoint to other beatiful lady's work - Katinka Barysch's "New Europe and the Economic Crisis" - profound analysis of where new EU members stand in crisis and what are possibilites ahead (read here).

The prospect of Central Europe in both texts seems to be very gloomy and both are certain that we are facing change of what we can call "reform paradigm": if opening economies, following EU guidelines so strictly and doing privatisation and market reforms was the right way when old EU member states will come back to the economic nationalism, when EU solidarity is questioned in numerous issues (remember recent gas crisis). All these questions should and probably would be raised and underlined during the year when 20th anniversary of "Velvet revolutions" will be celebrated.

What strikes me is that while we are discussing more or less only economical part of crisis, there is very small part of debate about society and what I consider as basic question in the crisis: trust. After entering EU the reform pressure has stopped in almost all new member states, corruption, disbelief of voters and general "bad mood" prevailed. Until recently, good economic shape could cover that, but this year we will be facing tough decisions and questions.
And to my knowledge, situation is not the same in all ten new member countries. My Estonian colleague answered my question about why situation in Estonia is not so bad like in Latvia and why there are no public protests after government decided to cut 10 percent of all state employees: "What I have understood is that in Estonian still have some sort of belief in our government, political parties etc. Even though tough budget cuts touch everyone. If you look into figures (http://www.postimees.ee/?id=76720) the political parties in the parliament enjoy roughly the same amount of support as during the elections 2 years ago. While in Latvia none of the parties in the parliament would today cross the 5% threshold. As some analysts have pointed out the differences are in transparency and the level of political corruption," has written me Kadri Kukk (another nice lady, by the way).
So what? Estonians will be again ahead as at times of reforms, because social trust and social capital is higher? Does anybody in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary belive that governing politicians, often considered corrupt and incompetent or weakened by scandals, are able to show us way out? Do we believe ourselves and each other (crucial condition for making business)?
Answer to these questions is for me crucial to understand what will be the impact of economic crisis on postcommunist members of EU and where is the future of our countries (being in EU or not).
Thank you, ladies.

Bizzare of Czech politics at times of EU presidency

2009-02-03T08:35:00.000-08:00

It is a bizzarre world looking at it from Prague in these days. We have a historical chance to "play a big politics" as head of EU, meanwhile in our newsroom over heads we hear stupid debate of our deputies in parliament about Lisbon treaty, about party differencies and at the same time the world headlines are about Iran launching satellite. This is a big politics meanwhile Czech socdem opposition refuses to support foreign missions of Czech army and wants a trade-off for domestic issues.

Provinciality of Czech politics hurts. During last few years we - liberal journalists - had feeling that at least for foreign policy we could be proud of our government, defending Cuban dissidents or making issue of energy security of THE ISSUES inside the EU. Now, when we can proof some of our qualities, our politicians became a sacrifices of internal quarreling, weak government is blackmailed by opposition.

Looking back at my previous blog entry, my pessimism goes deeper and deeper: there is lack of political leadership at times of crises. As far as I know about development in other postcommunist countries, our situation is not better or worse - it is bad as bad is political stalemate in Hungary (look at interesting interview with oppositon leader Viktor Orban, who is going to be next prime minister in Financial Times), as Slovak populism or nice talks about reform without action in Donald Tusk's Poland. Our, Czech, specifics is that we are exposed to the attention of Europe because of EU presidency.
Today's debate in Czech parliament about Lisbon treaty hurts, result is not clear. This parliament session is supposed to have about 230 points. Lisbon treaty is the first one and debate goes on for fifth hour. The most probable result will be postponing vote in Lower Chamber.

Need for a new start twenty years after

2009-01-29T08:11:00.000-08:00

Is it an avalanche? Or revolution? Or mother of all crises? It looks like that postcommunist countries between Baltic and Adriatic Seas are in the year of important anniversary going through test of crucial importance which they had not been facing through last twenty years.
Economy is shrinking, as well as number of jobs available, in many countries there are unpopular governments unable to push through reforms. Party systems are either extremely unstable(Poland, Lithuania), or extremely polarized and digged in, freezed with small chances to for profound change (Czechia, Hungary). Corruption, distrust and malpractice is common feature as well as what Vaclav Havel in times of crises in 1997 called "blbá nálada" - very hard to translate, maybe "bad mood" or "nought mood" of people.
Reform ethos, on which governments could base their reform effort twenty years ago, is gone. People in postcommunist countries were prepared to go through very bumpy road because they had seen light in the end of tunnel: euroatlantic integration, prosperity and better quality of life, free travel, free speech. And - in many cases - also promising politicians who were able to deliver at time.
But what people see know: in Baltics troika governments are changing as rapidly as names of parties and Prime Ministers, in Poland there are still (almost) no highways and politics is synonym for corruption, Hungary became famous for its debt and two young but uncompromising politicians who support deep division of society, in Czechia there is still 15 to 20 percent of vote blocked by the old-style communist party, which in last year's regional elections came back to power in coalitions with social democrats, in Slovakia leftwing populist bears fruits of unpopular, but unnecessary previous reforms of right, Romania after becoming EU member had descendend into political chaos and with Bulgaria both countries are synonym for mismanagement, corruption and organised crime. Picture of former Yugoslavia countries is a bit brighter, because there is no war, but Kosovo's future, as well as Macedonian or Bosnia's is still very uncertain.
And plus all this, people are coming to the streets to protest: in Bulgaria, in Latvia, in Lithuania there were already what we can call embryotic social protests - few thousands people in the streets. But picture is becoming more gloom, when one looks at Hungary or Romania or Poland - there is potential for much more serious unrest, unless politicians will unite and start to act. But that is, of course, very idealistic expectation.
Twenty years after the fall of communism we are again at turning point. At this time, we are not alone, we are part of broader picture, of globalised world. This is also the reason that now - in contrast to year of 1989 - nobody but us could give us a helping hand. We cannot expect sympathy from Brussels or Paris or Berlin or Washington, because they also are in troubles. Raising nationalism, protectionism and incapability of our leaders to look over horizon of four years term and proviciality are main worries - and problems to be solved. But there are no Havels and Walesas and Antals on the horizon.
The prospect of Central Europe in the year of commemoration is quite gloomy - and not only because GDP is contracting like crazy.

Eastern Davos - and how to get there

2008-09-09T13:12:00.001-07:00

Economic forum in Polish Krynica has nickname „Eastern Davos“. Maybe it is too ambitious to call it like that but each year, when I decide how and by which way to travel to this quiet spa resort on eastern side of Tatra mountains, I experience an exercise in development of Central Europe.
It is not about the quality of discussions, which are numerous and one needs to divide himself to be at every interesting panel, it is not about receptions, which are opulent and rich, it is not about two thousands of interesting people from business, politics and culture. It is about roads.
Organizers offer transport from Krakow. But to get there by plane is almost impossible if you do not book your ticket six months before, what is for journalist hard to do. By train it is seven hours (if train goes according to schedule, which is an exception, not rule). And then three hours in bus. Therefore I vote for car.
Then detailed study of actual situation of road construction comes. And this is that development game. Forget about Poland. They only talk about building highways, their roads are bumpy and way how they drive is nothing but suicidal. I gave them many chances, but nice roads end ten kilometers behind border in Bialsko Biala.
Northeastern corner of Czech Republic is not very well reachable, because highways end hundred kilometres before border and have been under construction many years already, accompanied by corruption charges.
Slovaks are building at least highway to Zilina, where giant Kia auto company plant is situated, but to go further eastward is adventurous on narrow roads with hundreds of trucks – beside about fifty kilometers of finished highway around Liptovsky Mikulas. It is highway without external connection, that is interesting. This year I was surprised that construction site has changed and early I will be ready to go about eighty kilometers between Ruzomberok and Poprad on highway. Great! (If I survive these trucks).
But how to overcome traffic jams in between (this year around Czech Trinec and Slovak Cadca and Ruzomberok was particularly hard)? This is question in which no ultramodern GPS will help. Simply, constructions are everwhere as well as jams and as well as trucks full of goods for our developing consumerism.
Other special feature is crossing the borders. Czech-Slovak borders is still natural mountaineous barier against invasion. Beside highway from Brno to Bratislava there is no modern connection. How trucks between automotive companies in both countries will move is real mystery. Regional roads will probably look like Czech D1 main highway, connecting Prague and Brno. It is constantly under repair and constantly overcrowded by trucks from all over the Europe using Czechia as cheap transit country.
So, on one side there is development and construction going on, on the other signs of improvement are not seen on horizon.
Then finaly after nice part of journey comes around Tatry from Poprad north on, but – where to cross to Poland? If I would not have „secret“ information that nearby in Muszyna there is new „Visegrad“ bridge and crossing built, exhausted, I would have to go additional hundred kilometres. From both Polish and Slovak side is very hard to find new crossing, there are no signs on road and two years old map of Slovakia does show nothing.
So tired, exhausted and enriched by new finesses of Czech, Slovak and Polish drivers, I am in Krynica, happy and looking forward, because I (and other few hundreds) are eager to discuss new things in our bumpy, unconnected region which is under (re)construction. I find my hotel, open box with invitations and – first two invite me to panels about building highways in public-private partnership and transport at the service of business. Welcome to Krynica!

How to live with bear on your backyard - Georgian lessons

2008-08-13T04:37:00.000-07:00

Smoke is disappearing from Georgian sky - at least from part of that, while there are reports of looting and burning of Georgian villages close to South Ossetia. At least, heads are cooling on both sides and analysts are trying to write first lessons learned from short, intensive, unnecessary and to certain extend stupid war (if wars are not stupid at all) on the South Caucasus. There are interesting views from BBC or Financial Times, for example.

I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.

First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.

Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US antimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.

Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.

Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.

Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.

Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.

In the Olympic shadow monster is coming

2008-08-06T05:56:00.000-07:00

It is coming invisibly, in quiet, in the shadow of Olympic games. But it comes decisively. It is not communism as one can guess. It is economical crisis. We in Central Europe with our strong curriencies and conscious politicians still think that we are an island of stability at the sea of turbulencies. But in Baltics they already know what is it overheated economy after credit crunch.
Poland, Slovakia, Czechia live through times of unprecedent prosperity. But now there is BIG warning: Germany, decisive market for all of us, is contracting - almost about one percent in the second quarter, as preliminary estimations say, for instance in today's Financial Times.
We live through big fiesta, until now. There is a question if our economies are prepared for any kind of slowing down, hard landing is more a question for our friends in Latvia and Estonia. But what is clear is that time for reforms is over. In Slovakia, they keep what was done under Mr. Dzurinda's governments, nothing else.
Czechia has been swalowed by political infighting within weak coalition government. Reforms, light ones, were done only in health care. Now we approach regional elections and then there will be EU presidency. It is not time for reforms even if economy would be booming.
Poland has got lost in inaction of promising liberal government. No major reform law was put under parliament scrutiny during first eight months of Mr. Tusk government. Prime minister and his Civic platform party are extremely popular mainly because of extreme unpopularity of strongest opposition party, Law and justice of Kaczynskis brothers.
EU money is pouring in, banks are wary to lend to poor borrowers, credit crunch is not the issue here. But with many car makers and low salaries we became a workshop of Europe. With strong currencies even the advantage of cheap labour has disappeared. And our politicians are able only to talk about knowledge based economy, not to push through any proposals and laws, not to reform overburdened public budgets.
I am afraid that Centraleuropean fiesta is coming to an end. But (almost) nobody dares. Shopping in Germany got now so cheap!

Obama as Messiah in Europe. False or right?

2008-07-25T01:49:00.000-07:00

"Ich bin ein Berliner."
"Mr. Gorbachov, tear down that wall."
"In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the only way, the only way to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."
These are three American quotes from Berlin. First two are coldwar symbols of free world, the third one is a message in globalized century. Yes, I know, it is hard to compare highly symbolical and already many times interpreted words of JFK and Ronald Reagan with fresh and not yet digested words of 46-old Senator who might be once President of the USA. But this will not be quote for historical textbooks, I am almost sure.
Europeans have been desperate to see and hear Barack Obama like Messiah. There were about 200 000 people gathered, more than at any US rally, says Politico (my favourite online source on US politics). Europe seems to be fed up by Mr. Bush and his handling of international affairs.
But will there be any difference, if Oval office will be occupied for the first time in American history by Afroamerican?
It seems to me that not so much. Obama called in Berlin for closer cooperation between US and Europe. What does that mean for Europe? More European soldiers and helicopters in Afghanistan and Darfur, unified European position in dealing with China or Russia, stronger European voice in trade talks. I doubt that crowd in Berlin, where we could see posters like "Obama for Kanzler", was aware of what is the content of message which nicely speaking man in front of them is telling.
America has its own problems nowadays, nicely described in leading article of the last issue of The Economist. It is hard to imagine that new US president will have as a priority to improve his relations with Europe, especialy in case that leftleaning Obama should deal with rightleaning majority of European leaders, who are absorbed by their own problems with Lisbon treaty, immigrants and economic slowdown.
I have serious doubts that there are going to be a big differencies in the US-European relations after November. We live in a world, where globalisation is forcing leaders of Western world to defensive rather than offensive positions, we can see that for example in business where more and more companies from emerging economies is buying good old brands in "old world". Obama does not seem to offer any new revolutionary idea how to reverse this trend.
Even Obama is now darling not only of American, but also of European media, he still has brand of anti-free trade politicians with suspiciously often changed opinions. We should be aware of him as a leader, even he could do better than George W. Bush.
And final note for European left: Many people like to compare Obama to JFK, even he did not make A QUOTE in Berlin. But do not forget that was JFK who increased number of US soldiers in Vietnam from 800 advisors to 16 000 combat troops and who did not dare to get engaged with Soviet Union over missile base in Cuba.

Russian revenge for Czech radar

2008-07-17T08:49:00.000-07:00

So here we are: A day after Czech Republic signed aggreement with the US about stationing of antimissile radar Czech oil companies has been witnessing decrease of input of oil in the pipe Drushba from Russia. Official explanation is as usual: technical problems. But there is no doubt that we are punished by Kremlin for our highly sensitive and political decision to underline our alliance with the US.
Fortunately, we have another pipe from West which could easily cover Czech consuption as last week has shown. But Czech companies now have to search for oil at other markets and buy it for slightly higher prices than long time contracted Russian oil from Drushba.
We are aware of Lithuanian story from 2006 with "technical problems" with their part of Drushba, after they have privatized Mazeiku refinery to Polish PKN Orlen and not to Russian Lukoil. That pipe is still empty even Lithuania has been offering help to Russians to repaire technical problems (at least Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas recently has told me that).
Czech officials stress that at stake there is Russian position as reliable business partner for EU countries, but we have not heard any strong word from Brussels up to now to support that cause.
EU common energy policy is not existing as well as "political solidarity", it seems to me. Russians are playing well they usual "divide and rule" policy, especialy in energy. They prefer bilateral talks and contracts than dealing with EU as one entity - if there is any EU common interest in energy at all. Silence from Brussels (at least in media) seems to point out that decision by Czech government to host American radar and strengthen our transatlantic relations is right.

How to make A HISTORY by the Czech way

2008-07-10T08:38:00.001-07:00

It is hard to be blogger and journalist in classical media at the same time. Especialy when your country is going through historical change, which is not trackable on the first sight. Too much work, too much thoughts going through your had and too much doubts about the result.
This week Czech government signed historical agreement about antimissile radar being stationed in Czech Republic. Of course, there will be problem for government coalition, which rely on three deputies, to push agreement through parliament, but Prime Minister Topolanek has showed many times he and his team are skilful political pragmatics.
Historical moment is going on under the surface of daily news. If US government wants to have part of strategic project to be stationed in Central Europe, therefore it is means huge geopolitical shift - and Russians have reason to be angry: from their point of view they are loosing Central Europe geostrategicaly (energy dependence and FSB agents remain).
Quarreling with Poles about Patriots is just a game, Poles are petty traders as usual, they need a good bargain for domestic political purposes. But finaly, at least what I have heard from insiders on Polish political scene, they will accept US conditions and base with interceptors.
So, what remains? To persuade Czech social democrats (at least few of them) to support radar agreement in parliament, maybe as exchange for Lisbon treaty- Yes, this is POLITICAL BARGAIN. Czech "conservatives" have their doubts about Lisbon, Czech "socialists" about radar base. There are regional elections in November and US presidential ones. Czechs will not be able to make a compromise until then as well as the left will be waiting if - just in case - Barack Obama will not postpone or erase radar base plans at all.
Only between mid-November and mid-December there is small window of opportunity to make something with Lisbon and radar. This will be the end of history(cal moment) of shifting balance in Central Europe.

EU: closer to people or getting lost

2008-06-18T07:14:00.000-07:00

Bloggers are not supposed to have holidays, even my ones were a bit forced under the circumstancies inside my family. While I was taking care of my two-years old daughter, Ireland decided about the future of Lisbon treaty, therefore influencing the future life of my sweetheart. No, I am do not want my daughter to by politician but she will be living in different Europe and different world. And the shape of that Europe and its role in the world is decided now.
It looks like Central Europe wants to use its influence on EU till last moment and till last eurosceptic voice. Czechs are together with Poles the other troublemakers after Irish. Lisbon treaty is not very popular document and it is not only because it is too thick to read through. It is too far away from ordinary people, which is the most probable reason why European politicians are afraid to go through Irish experience of referendum.
EU is going through phase of growing gap between so called elites and voters. It is not just feeling in eurosceptical Czechia, but through the continent. Influence of Brussels bureaucracy is not understandable for ordinary Czechs, Spaniards, Brits, Poles or Latvians. They only see free movement (not in Germany and Austria), they see some money, but for many of them even EU money are too abstract and to hard to get. All other visions and revisions are too distant for them.
EU should now look for ideas which are closer to people, for concrete projects like energy security and prices, like security issues, like credit crises. Bring EU closer to people, stop talking about vision of Europe, start discuss reality would be my advice to Brussels politicians and bureaucrats.
Of course, it is easier said than done, it is on the edge of dangerous populism, but it seems to me that this is the only way out of clench into which EU got itself through Irish referendum and possible Czech and Polish rejection of Lisbon treaty. Otherwise there is danger that EU will freeze itself into endless debates and its role in the world would be decreasing by even more quicker pace than it is doing so now.

US bases: Mild Czechs, hard Poles

2008-05-20T08:24:00.000-07:00

It was a hard return from Balkans to Central Europe. While I was traveling through region I covered ten years ago and filling my rather sceptical views with more optimistic data about development in Serbia and Kosovo, there was going on drama around US antimissile shield bases in Czechia and Poland.
Czechia did not sign already finished agreement, because Ms. Condoleezza Rice did not find time to come to Prague as planned on May 5. Polish negotiatiors have smuggled into media news about US refusing to fulfill all Polish wishes about modernisation of Polish army. Is really something getting wrong with US military presence in Central Europe?
Not exactly. Czech government is already decided to support radar base even there is strong resistance among public and site of future US radar is at the moment occupied by so called peace activists. Two of them in Prague are even on hunger strike, but for cabinet of Prime Minister Topolanek there is now only one task: how to push ratification of treaty with US through parliament. It is not easy task, but doable. Canceling visit to Prague Ms. Rice did not help much, Czech government is looking for any signal of help with PR from US administration, but Americans are silent. And then there is question, if Czech attitude towards radar issue was the right one. Should we be like Poles?
Poles are watching that very closely. They say: we will not change our positions and demands to which Washington did not respond satisfactorily. Put in words of one of Polish diplomats, there is now chance that in Poland there will be US base is fifty to fifty there will be no one. Poles are a bit fed up with helping US in Afghanistan, in Irak, in EU or at other more or less visible fronts and getting anything for that - no special contracts in Irak, no offsets for US F-16s, no special treatment in defense cooperation. Their diplomatic skills, once called by unnamed EU diplomat as "Polish diplomatic brutality", are well known and personality of minister Radoslaw Sikorski is their biggest asset in dealing with Washington politics.
Therefore there will be drama yet to see during summer months, even some Polish journalists call negotiations "game". It will be fun as well as interesting to see it and maybe Czech politicians will get from Polish hardship some food for thought.

Do Serbs understand what is going on?

2008-05-11T11:53:00.001-07:00

Recent parliamentary elections are clear illustrations of the name of this blog: between EU and Russia, between open politics and strange behind-the-scenese dealing. I was traveling through Serbia and Kosovo for last couple of days and comparing recent situation with what I had experienced ten or twelve years ago. It was a big deja vu and also a big experience on how you can lose good opportunity for development.
And now Serbs try to catch up with Europe. It is a difficult way, because part of their politicians seems to be persuaded that there are other ways how to develop than to cooperate with EU.
They are wrong. To make a pact with Russia seems to fit with tradition Serbian thinking that Russians are "our best friend". But if Serbs look into the history, they were always betrayed buy Russians or misused. Slobodan Milosevic got nothing from his close relationship with Moscow except some Russian arms.
Therefore it is only part of Serbian mythology that Moscow will support them. Yes, Russians will but only at case if will fit them. Remember victourious travel of Russian troops to Prishtina airport in June 1999? Where are Russians now? They left after situation was explored for their PR purposes.
Well, I hope that Serbs will finally understand how to get their country from isolation and not being tied up forever by historical myths around Kosovo. This entry is being written on Sunday, just hours before announcment of election results, so I look forward to see, how they voted with you.

Lisbon in Dublin and Prague

2008-04-30T12:12:00.000-07:00

It seems to be paradoxical. Czech government in the middle of preparations for the first presidency of EU for next year has sent Lisbon treaty to constitutional court to prove its "constitutionality" with Czech basic law. In fact, it was sent by Senat, Czech upper chamber, where main government party ODS (Civic democrats) has clear majority.
Leadership of ODS is more eurosceptical than is European average, but it is not crazy like Czech president Vaclav Klaus. Funny fact is that core supporters of ODS, according to polls, are euroethusiats, because they are people who befit most from EU memebership - businessmen, active travelers, people with more money and will to decide for themselves.
But leadership of Prime Minister Topolanek is clear: let's decide judges if Charta of basic rights is in accordance with Czech constitution.
Irish minister for Europan affairs Dick Roche was today in Prague on debate in Czech Senate about Lisbon treaty ratification. Ireland is even more in troubles with constitutional need for referendum, which is supposed to be on June 12. But Mr. Roche personaly already persuaded wary Irish about Nice treaty, which was bigger mess than carefuly redesigned Euroconstitution called Reform or Lisbon treaty. He was probably a bit confused by debate in Senate, where everybody except ODS members spoke about support for Lisbon with small nuancies in different party lines.
His lesson-learned from Nice and from unsuccesful Euroconstitution process was that to persuade people is necessary to make gradual steps: information, persuasion, explanation, step by step. Not to send to people Bible-like-book and sit and wait like French did with constitution. Modern voters are lazy to engage themselves in political life more than it is necessary for daily business. They need executive summaries.
Fortunately, Czechs do not have to vote in referendum. Governmental propaganda is very weak, we could see it on issue of US radar base. Debate about Euroconstitution was very weak and directed by Vaclav Klaus and his pointed scepticism. There was no similar strong voice from the other side. Czechs as well as other Centraleuropeans are very happy to be in EU. But euroethusiasm, wave of support and passion for eurointegration is away. More or less we can write that EU affairs are business as usual - except presidency and constant suspicion that we do not get as much money from EU funds as possible. People tend to use pleasant things like free travel as usual normality. In debate about Lisbon treaty we should probably get back a bit and have a reflection of our Europeaness.
By the way, Marek Mora, deputy of deputy Prime Minister for European affairs has mentioned today, that some partners abroad see Czechs as well as Irish the most problematic states in connection with Lisbon treaty. Well, Poles are already done, Brits have they special treatment. Fate of the most important EU document for last decade will be decided by Irish voters and Czech postcommunist left leaning constitutional judges. Not a nice perspective.

Unhealthy pillar of reforms

2008-04-22T12:04:00.000-07:00

The reform of health care is surprising champion of postcommunism. At least in Central European countries it is a cornerstone for other reforms, it is a pillar for demagogues as well as basic argument for those, who want to change postcommunism to normal society. Look at Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia or Hungary and you find everywhere the same struggle modified by local conditions and local populists.
Main problem is that majority of people still believs in communist propaganda that health care is for free. It was not and it is not.
Czech Republic is now in the middle of battle between proreform central-right government dependent on unstable two-MPs majority with their lefwing-populist opponents. Last week we have seen trial hearing at Constitutional Court where Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek and his minister of health care Tomáš Julínek were submitted to speak and respond to political questioning by judges. Reason? Mainly new payments for visit to doctor, which are aprroximatly one euro and thanks to them from the beginning of this year people saved more than one bilion of Czech Crowns to health care system, because visits has dropped by 36 percent.
In Poland there is constant struggle where to find enough money for once-upon-a-time reformed health care service, which is again in debts and desperately looking for workforce, because medical staff is leaving en masse. Governments, left, right or nationalist, are afraid to introduce visit fees because of famous Polish anger and ability to protest against anything being misused by populists.
Hungary have started well with new register of payments, introducing visit fees, improving register of payers and also National Health Care system being in surplus for the first time since reform twelfe years ago. But coalition governement of Prime Minister Gyurcsány faced unprecendent referendum about fees and next step, de facto opening of health insurance system to private sector, seems to be abolished. The only result is renewed register of social payment, where about half million of "black souls" emerged and is now contributing to the system. This was the first goal of reform, how explained Mr. Gyurcsány to me year ago, when he introduced it. Now is Hungary heading to minority government, because liberals, smaller proreform party, after referendum decided not to continue with postcommunist socialists of Mr. Gyurcsány. Well, nice try.
And here we go to Slovakia. Robert Fico in campaing two years ago promised to reverse reformed working system. But his government only abolished some visit fees - and that's it. System is working, Slovakia is heading towards euro, there are no protests, no people are starving because of health care reform. The only problem is that right wing Slovakian reformists has had other ideas where to lead their country - next step after health care and attraction of carmakers was supposed to be reform of education system and overall improvement of Slovakian emerging economy towards more value-added, high-tech and 21st century one. Base for that was health care reform connected with other changes like tax or pension systems.
So far, there are no succesful followers in Central Europe and even Slovakian reformers are taking time for reflection in desperately divided opposition.
Path of Central Europe to succesful future is still open as well as fate of health care systems.

Useful dinosaurus of Europe

2008-04-15T05:16:00.000-07:00

It looks like dinosaurus of European politics. OSCE, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, seems to be out of fashion when almost all European countries reguraly organise free and fair elections, when respect to human and civic rights is widespread.
But key is in the word "almost". I have realised that again while reading interview with Slovak minister of culture Marek Madaric in Slovak daily Hospodarske noviny (sister newspaper of my own Czech HN). His government pushed through parliament new law about print media which, according to Slovak publishers and OSCE expertize restricts freedom of expression. "Fact that OSCE is critical towards new print law is not surprising for me, because there were more different views in discussions with them (and our government)," said minister.
Therefore, this has struck me a lot. During last two years one could hear about OSCE quarrelling with somebody only at times of serious crisis. Russia refused OSCE election monitors, Belorussia considers OSCE as arm of Western subversion. And there was a big fuss last year ahead of parliamentary elections in Poland, when former Czech president Vaclav Havel had recommended OSCE election monitors to watch Polish elections because of hard two years of conservative-nationalistic rule. Polish prime minister at that time, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, strongly refused and spoke about external meddling into internal affairs. Irony is that OSCE monitoring election branch, ODIHR, is seated in Warsaw.
To be advised and monitored by OSCE was one of powerful instruments how to organize elections in postwar Balkans during nineties. It is regular but more symbolical tool for elections in Western countries as well as in the US. It is no shame to be monitored, meanwhile some members, namely Russia, misused OSCE mechanism. Moscow defense of Russian minorities in Baltic states was example of that.
But open, democratic and free society should not have any problems with monitoring media or elections. In postcommunist states positive OSCE assessment could help to raise credentials for such countries in transition. Only countries with authoritarian tendencies or rulers such are Belarussia, Russia or Kazachstan are constatly defending themselves against any cooperation with outside world. That was the reason why I was afraid of words of Slovakian minister. It is not that one cannot disagree with international organisation, but because OSCE is kind of last check, last resort to discuss such normalities like freedom of expression. After that comes international isolation, sanctions, bad headlines in international media, wary investors - simply problems and exclusion from family or normal European nations. Slovaks had already experienced it during nineties, during semiauthoritarian rule of Vladimir Meciar.

Fear or not fear of German-Russia friendship?

2008-04-14T12:11:00.000-07:00

The suspicion is already not so strong like it has been during times when in Poland was government headed by Jaroslaw Kaczyński. But suspicion is still present: Germany is Troyan horse of strengthened Russia in Europe. The question is not military force, but business, economical power.
Last time when doubts where spotted easily, was during NATO summit in Bucarest two weeks ago. Proamerican newcomers to alliance from Central Europe hardly accepted that chancellor Angela Merkel de facto blocked enlargement of alliance eastwards.
The most suspicious are Poles, who have proeuropean open governement for last couple of months, but anyhow they has been very carefuly watching if anybody – by chance – is not demanding property or soil back from part of country which belongs to Poland after The Second World War.
Antipathy towards Germans is widely spread in Poland, even it is diminishing after the end of socialism. According to polls of CBOS from last September, 39 percent of Poles dislike Germans. Poles are suspicious that Germans are allied with Russians in economic projects againts the interests of Poland – prime example is pipeline Nord Stream planned to go around Poland through Baltic Sea. It reminds Poles about Molotov-Ribbentrop pact or three divisions of Poland.
Former chancellor Gerhard Schröder is sitting at executive board of Nord Stream. The same man was at the head of Germany, while export from Russia to Germany increased of fifty percent. Journalist from Economist Edward Lucas has written in his book „New Cold War“ about new relations between Russia and West – and particularly Germany: „Russia has spotted that the weakest link in the Western approach to life is inattention to the ethical and moral basis of capitalism: if only money matters, then why is the Kremlin’s money worse than anyone else’s?“
But Poles and Baltic peoples have add to this their historical experience. Any agreements between Russia and Germany are source of hard shudder. That is the reason why they want common EU energy policy, for example.
Czechs are among all postcommunist Centraleuropeans the most pragmatic ones. This attitude is very close to western one illustrated by managers of Shel or BP companies. They were stripped by the Kremlin of many of their assets but they still want to make a business in Russia because it is too big, too underdeveloped and too magnetic market. According to two-years old poll of SC&C agency, Czechs even count Germans as sympathetic nation.

Of carmakers and dreamers

2008-04-08T08:19:00.001-07:00

I really do not understand it. German Daimler wants to build another car factory in Central Europe (Poland?, Czechia?, Romania?), while all existing car producers in New Detroit has been desperately searching for workforce in Ukraine, Vietnam and even Pakistan. Czechia and Slovakia compete about who will produce more cars per head, Poland has record low unemployment (around 11 pc. and according to daily Dziennik even one third of them work in shadow economy). There are no engeneers or technicians on the market and salaries (and inflation) have been going up slowly, but steadily. Well paid workers in Czech Skoda factory plan new strikes for this autumn to get some boost, their colleagues in Wroclaw (Opel) or Tichy (Fiat) did exactly that last year.
Then there must be something "automotive" here between Odra river and Carpathian mountains. Roads are not to much carfriendly, Polish troubles with contruction of new highways are well known, as well as Czech and Slovak ones.
Attraction for investors must lie in medium term incetives plus proximity of Western market plus hopes connected with hunger for new cars in newly rich countries of postsocialist world. And we are not speaking about promising Ukrainian and Russian market. Then being construction specialist in Central Europe these days is not a bad option.
But what is worring that we are more and more dependent on car industry, which is - I must admit - not the best one from the perspective of modern technology and added value. Desings of cars are still being made somewhere else. So, for the moment we are dependent of the price of Skoda, Kia, Opel, Fiat, VW on the market similarly to Saudi Arabia or Russia with their oil.
But on the other hand, to quote one of the Slovak reformers with long vision of development, being Detroit of Europe is only one stage in steps towards modern, high-tech and high-value added society and state. It is only pity that Slovak reformers have lost last elections and cannot show us how to fulfill their dream.

Balkans in danger. Thanks to NATO and Greece

2008-04-03T05:59:00.001-07:00

Well, the list of the "important" topics of NATO summit in Bucharest is too similar to phone book of small town. For my country, Czechia, it is deal about antimissile radar, for French new troops going to Afghanistan and for small Macedonia - well, the answer is very hard.
Macedonian delegation has left summit earlier, small country in the mountains is very disappointed. Croatia and Albania have got invitation, Macedonia, which has sent its soldiers to Irak and Afghanistan, which paid huge amount of money for publicity in western press, not.
This is very dangerous for all Balkans. I am not writing about stupidity of Greeks or about stubborness of Macedonias in their dispute about name of two-milion country. It is about internal stability of Macedonia, which is under constant pressure of its Albanian minority. Macedonian Albanians have been pacified by peace agreement in 2001. But they have seen since the development in neighbouring Kosovo, where even harder stubborness of their cousins resulted in independence - fragile, but real.
Extremists on both sides (Kosovo and Macedonia) do not have big support for the moment. But after NATO rejection there will be many more arguments for them to point at unsuccesful policy of government in Skopje and say: let's try something else. Situation in Kosovo is tense, international community is consumed by nonvisible struggle between Albanians and Serbs, snow is melting, mountains are going to blossom. In the shadow there can again rose to prominence some new group trying to secure its interests in smuggling or other illegal activity and couflage it by independence call.
Well, we should watch Balkans again closely. Spring offensives are not only the speciality of Taliban.

EU hostage in Central Europe

2008-03-31T05:37:00.000-07:00

It is a war without deads, without smoke and without rockets. But it is tough, because it is about the future. Lisbon Treaty has now being ratified in parliaments of Central European countries. Treaty is only re-dressed former euroconstitution against which there was such a big defiance.
Defiance is still firm. Polish Sejm will decide about treaty after a long quarrell between prime minister and president whose peak was at weekend five hours meeting on the beach of Baltic Sea.
The core of the problem was mainly fight between political parties: oposition conservative Law and Justice party was under cover of defense of national interests and Christian character of society seeking some points to gain. Party has inside problems and very low support in pools. But it almost crashed, was almost split and president (brother of head of the party) made possible to get out of the clash with honesty.
Polish problem with Lisbon Treaty started to gain attention abroad. And similarly, Europe starts to watch closely Slovakia, where Lisbon Treaty also has became core of the clash between government and opposition. Right wing opposition has took Treaty, which needs to be passed with constitutional majority, as hostage in debate about new press law. Leftwing and nationalist governing coalition wants to pacify unfriendly press by new law.
Now it looks that prime minister Robert Fico will let parliament to vote on Lisbon Treaty, it will not pass by five votes and all ratification process in EU will get into trouble. Maybe he appeals to european consciousness of rightwing politicians, who - while being in government for eight years - turned Slovakia from semiautocracy of government of Vladimir Mečiar in 1990s to european path. And now they could feel a bit stupid to be blamed of paneuropean trouble.
But at the same time, new prees law is also a big problem, because it dictates unprecedently wide right for the answer for poiticians in newspapers. Really, it is very awkward decision.
Czech eurosceptics are using majority of rightwing conservative ODS party in Senate to test Lisbon Treaty at Constitutional Court. Its Charter of fundamental rights is - according to Czech and also Polish defenders of national rights - restricting national sovereignty.
Therefore, what is European union for Centraleuropeans? Cashmachine full of money, source of nonsensical orders and laws or secretly built centralized eurostate?
The only ones with clear position are Hungarians. They had ratified Lisbon Treaty as the first EU member state already in December of last year, just few days after it was signed.

Deals without us. Or not?

2008-03-27T10:12:00.001-07:00

Well, we are in the finish. Exactly, it is not a race, even it looks like that. Czech Republic will sing an angreement about hosting American base of antimissile shield during next few weeks. Poles, after disruption due to change of government and new conditions, are finally finishing also. Last news is that until June they want to have an agreement for their part of shield. Maybe they will get their Patriots, who knows?
Czech and Polish government officials are partially teasing each other, who will make better deal. Czechs prefer to have educational, research and develompemnt deals accompanying radar site, while Poles want hardware for their army. Only history will tell us who was better negotiator.
But there is another part of deal, which is done over heads of Czechs and Poles - between Russians and Americans. Now it looks like Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin will make some deal on missile defense next week while meeting in Bucharest or Sochi. Only top diplomats know what kind of deal it is - Czech officials already said that they accept inspections of Russian experts under certain conditions. For recent Czech governement is more important to have American base on Czech soil, therefore to achieve strategical choice which any future (leftwing) government will not be able to change. To pay such price as Russian inspection is maybe worth it.
But, what the hell is in the Russian-American deal I would like to know. Mr. Robert Gates and Ms. Condoleezza Rice were smiling too much while visiting Moscow last week...

Travel to Olympics? No, thank you.

2008-03-26T07:29:00.000-07:00

Going or not going to China? That is the question. At least for some politicians in Central Europe. Czech president Vaclav Klaus, outspoken Eurosceptic and refusenik of global warming, wrote at his webpage (www.klaus.cz), that he will not attend Olympic games. Reason? Nobody exactly knows, Mr. Klaus did not elaborate.
But debate in Europe is gaining momentum. French president Nicolas Sarkozy said that nothing is decided. Head of European parliament Hans-Gert Pöttering recommended to his colleagues not to go to China in August.
There are discussions in Poland, but not in Slovakia, whose premier Robert Fico is well known for his close ties to regimes like Chinese or recent Bielarussian one.
Czech Republic is modelling itself to role of defender of human rights in legacy of Vaclav Havel. President Klaus, who is thought to be close to his Serbian or Russian friends and partners, surprised by his decision not to go to China. Well, Czech Republic is not an IMPORTANT trade partner for Chinese, but Czech business is doing rather well in China and some business people certainly worry about official policy line (already Czech minister of education and sport Ondrej Liska (Green Party) decided not to attend official ceremonies in Beijing). Third and last invited Czech politician, premier Mirek Topolanek, has still to make up his mind.
Well, Central Europe is not just growingly important region for carmakers, but is also part of what Donald Rumsfeld called "New Europe" - closer to the United States, wary of Russia and with growing self-confidence and having important bunch of votes in European Union.
EU is not an entity well known for its clarity and rapid decision making. But New Europe could add something of this sort, based on experience of forty years of communist rule. And debate about travel to Olympic games to Beijing is example of such debate, where postcommunists could and should have different opinion than their Western colleagues.
Decision of Mr. Klaus is surprise, he was known more of being moderate on human rights issues. He does not explain, why he is not planning to go to Beijing. But definitely it is another proof that politics in New Europe is maturing and is able to make decisions for itself and not just wait for regulations either from Moscow or from Brussels.

Oh, these Russians!

2008-03-23T14:17:00.000-07:00

Prague is still not the best place to live in. At least, from the point of view of new books. I am desperately waiting for Edward Lucas's new book New Cold War, which I ordered in one English bookshop in the centre of Prague. "Leave us email, we will give you a note," was last version.
I am getting suspicion on them. There are many things which you could blame Russians on: nervosity about gas supplies, high prices of property in Karlovy Vary (Carlsbad), fear of Russian spies in Czech army and government, demonstrations against planned US antimissile radar. But supplies of books from London? If I would not decide to save money for Amazon delivery, I would already had it, but in above mentioned book shop they promised month ago that book comes quickly.
Therefore I wait and wait. Last time when I called to bookshop, there was some Russian voice speaking from behind, so my suspition have grown.
But maybe it is only Russofobia, which I am pracitising. Mr. Putin's policy from last years forced me to refresh my Russian from good old school days, when we all had to learn that language (familiar story to all postcommunists). I am not complaining about Russian literature or culture, but to learn it as a MUST, one cannot love it too much. But thanks to basic knowledge of Russian alphabet and language I did not have big problems to learn other Slavic languages in Balkans. Last year, when Bulgarian sisters were released from Libya, I found myself translating report from our sister Bulgarian newspaper and realizing that as byproduct of journalistic carreer I have learnt almost all Slavic languages - at least passively.
What we had learnt in school in Russian language classes was usualy for nothing. I can still extract from my head words of some communist songs, but to ask for towel in hotel or for menu in restaurant I have to search in dictionary.
But, whatever we think, Russia is back. And we in Central Europe feel the heat of breath of Russian bear. We still remember his embrace, his tightness, his determination, even many Czechs are still pro-russian and leftists (read pro-soviet and pro-russian also). But as pragmatist Czechs (read Good soldier Svejk for explanation), we aplaud loudly that between us and Russia there are other states being buffer zone.