EU: closer to people or getting lost

Bloggers are not supposed to have holidays, even my ones were a bit forced under the circumstancies inside my family. While I was taking care of my two-years old daughter, Ireland decided about the future of Lisbon treaty, therefore influencing the future life of my sweetheart. No, I am do not want my daughter to by politician but she will be living in different Europe and different world. And the shape of that Europe and its role in the world is decided now.
It looks like Central Europe wants to use its influence on EU till last moment and till last eurosceptic voice. Czechs are together with Poles the other troublemakers after Irish. Lisbon treaty is not very popular document and it is not only because it is too thick to read through. It is too far away from ordinary people, which is the most probable reason why European politicians are afraid to go through Irish experience of referendum.
EU is going through phase of growing gap between so called elites and voters. It is not just feeling in eurosceptical Czechia, but through the continent. Influence of Brussels bureaucracy is not understandable for ordinary Czechs, Spaniards, Brits, Poles or Latvians. They only see free movement (not in Germany and Austria), they see some money, but for many of them even EU money are too abstract and to hard to get. All other visions and revisions are too distant for them.
EU should now look for ideas which are closer to people, for concrete projects like energy security and prices, like security issues, like credit crises. Bring EU closer to people, stop talking about vision of Europe, start discuss reality would be my advice to Brussels politicians and bureaucrats.
Of course, it is easier said than done, it is on the edge of dangerous populism, but it seems to me that this is the only way out of clench into which EU got itself through Irish referendum and possible Czech and Polish rejection of Lisbon treaty. Otherwise there is danger that EU will freeze itself into endless debates and its role in the world would be decreasing by even more quicker pace than it is doing so now.

US bases: Mild Czechs, hard Poles

It was a hard return from Balkans to Central Europe. While I was traveling through region I covered ten years ago and filling my rather sceptical views with more optimistic data about development in Serbia and Kosovo, there was going on drama around US antimissile shield bases in Czechia and Poland.
Czechia did not sign already finished agreement, because Ms. Condoleezza Rice did not find time to come to Prague as planned on May 5. Polish negotiatiors have smuggled into media news about US refusing to fulfill all Polish wishes about modernisation of Polish army. Is really something getting wrong with US military presence in Central Europe?
Not exactly. Czech government is already decided to support radar base even there is strong resistance among public and site of future US radar is at the moment occupied by so called peace activists. Two of them in Prague are even on hunger strike, but for cabinet of Prime Minister Topolanek there is now only one task: how to push ratification of treaty with US through parliament. It is not easy task, but doable. Canceling visit to Prague Ms. Rice did not help much, Czech government is looking for any signal of help with PR from US administration, but Americans are silent. And then there is question, if Czech attitude towards radar issue was the right one. Should we be like Poles?
Poles are watching that very closely. They say: we will not change our positions and demands to which Washington did not respond satisfactorily. Put in words of one of Polish diplomats, there is now chance that in Poland there will be US base is fifty to fifty there will be no one. Poles are a bit fed up with helping US in Afghanistan, in Irak, in EU or at other more or less visible fronts and getting anything for that - no special contracts in Irak, no offsets for US F-16s, no special treatment in defense cooperation. Their diplomatic skills, once called by unnamed EU diplomat as "Polish diplomatic brutality", are well known and personality of minister Radoslaw Sikorski is their biggest asset in dealing with Washington politics.
Therefore there will be drama yet to see during summer months, even some Polish journalists call negotiations "game". It will be fun as well as interesting to see it and maybe Czech politicians will get from Polish hardship some food for thought.

Do Serbs understand what is going on?

Recent parliamentary elections are clear illustrations of the name of this blog: between EU and Russia, between open politics and strange behind-the-scenese dealing. I was traveling through Serbia and Kosovo for last couple of days and comparing recent situation with what I had experienced ten or twelve years ago. It was a big deja vu and also a big experience on how you can lose good opportunity for development.
And now Serbs try to catch up with Europe. It is a difficult way, because part of their politicians seems to be persuaded that there are other ways how to develop than to cooperate with EU.
They are wrong. To make a pact with Russia seems to fit with tradition Serbian thinking that Russians are "our best friend". But if Serbs look into the history, they were always betrayed buy Russians or misused. Slobodan Milosevic got nothing from his close relationship with Moscow except some Russian arms.
Therefore it is only part of Serbian mythology that Moscow will support them. Yes, Russians will but only at case if will fit them. Remember victourious travel of Russian troops to Prishtina airport in June 1999? Where are Russians now? They left after situation was explored for their PR purposes.
Well, I hope that Serbs will finally understand how to get their country from isolation and not being tied up forever by historical myths around Kosovo. This entry is being written on Sunday, just hours before announcment of election results, so I look forward to see, how they voted with you.

Lisbon in Dublin and Prague

It seems to be paradoxical. Czech government in the middle of preparations for the first presidency of EU for next year has sent Lisbon treaty to constitutional court to prove its "constitutionality" with Czech basic law. In fact, it was sent by Senat, Czech upper chamber, where main government party ODS (Civic democrats) has clear majority.
Leadership of ODS is more eurosceptical than is European average, but it is not crazy like Czech president Vaclav Klaus. Funny fact is that core supporters of ODS, according to polls, are euroethusiats, because they are people who befit most from EU memebership - businessmen, active travelers, people with more money and will to decide for themselves.
But leadership of Prime Minister Topolanek is clear: let's decide judges if Charta of basic rights is in accordance with Czech constitution.
Irish minister for Europan affairs Dick Roche was today in Prague on debate in Czech Senate about Lisbon treaty ratification. Ireland is even more in troubles with constitutional need for referendum, which is supposed to be on June 12. But Mr. Roche personaly already persuaded wary Irish about Nice treaty, which was bigger mess than carefuly redesigned Euroconstitution called Reform or Lisbon treaty. He was probably a bit confused by debate in Senate, where everybody except ODS members spoke about support for Lisbon with small nuancies in different party lines.
His lesson-learned from Nice and from unsuccesful Euroconstitution process was that to persuade people is necessary to make gradual steps: information, persuasion, explanation, step by step. Not to send to people Bible-like-book and sit and wait like French did with constitution. Modern voters are lazy to engage themselves in political life more than it is necessary for daily business. They need executive summaries.
Fortunately, Czechs do not have to vote in referendum. Governmental propaganda is very weak, we could see it on issue of US radar base. Debate about Euroconstitution was very weak and directed by Vaclav Klaus and his pointed scepticism. There was no similar strong voice from the other side. Czechs as well as other Centraleuropeans are very happy to be in EU. But euroethusiasm, wave of support and passion for eurointegration is away. More or less we can write that EU affairs are business as usual - except presidency and constant suspicion that we do not get as much money from EU funds as possible. People tend to use pleasant things like free travel as usual normality. In debate about Lisbon treaty we should probably get back a bit and have a reflection of our Europeaness.
By the way, Marek Mora, deputy of deputy Prime Minister for European affairs has mentioned today, that some partners abroad see Czechs as well as Irish the most problematic states in connection with Lisbon treaty. Well, Poles are already done, Brits have they special treatment. Fate of the most important EU document for last decade will be decided by Irish voters and Czech postcommunist left leaning constitutional judges. Not a nice perspective.

Unhealthy pillar of reforms

The reform of health care is surprising champion of postcommunism. At least in Central European countries it is a cornerstone for other reforms, it is a pillar for demagogues as well as basic argument for those, who want to change postcommunism to normal society. Look at Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia or Hungary and you find everywhere the same struggle modified by local conditions and local populists.
Main problem is that majority of people still believs in communist propaganda that health care is for free. It was not and it is not.
Czech Republic is now in the middle of battle between proreform central-right government dependent on unstable two-MPs majority with their lefwing-populist opponents. Last week we have seen trial hearing at Constitutional Court where Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek and his minister of health care Tomáš Julínek were submitted to speak and respond to political questioning by judges. Reason? Mainly new payments for visit to doctor, which are aprroximatly one euro and thanks to them from the beginning of this year people saved more than one bilion of Czech Crowns to health care system, because visits has dropped by 36 percent.
In Poland there is constant struggle where to find enough money for once-upon-a-time reformed health care service, which is again in debts and desperately looking for workforce, because medical staff is leaving en masse. Governments, left, right or nationalist, are afraid to introduce visit fees because of famous Polish anger and ability to protest against anything being misused by populists.
Hungary have started well with new register of payments, introducing visit fees, improving register of payers and also National Health Care system being in surplus for the first time since reform twelfe years ago. But coalition governement of Prime Minister Gyurcsány faced unprecendent referendum about fees and next step, de facto opening of health insurance system to private sector, seems to be abolished. The only result is renewed register of social payment, where about half million of "black souls" emerged and is now contributing to the system. This was the first goal of reform, how explained Mr. Gyurcsány to me year ago, when he introduced it. Now is Hungary heading to minority government, because liberals, smaller proreform party, after referendum decided not to continue with postcommunist socialists of Mr. Gyurcsány. Well, nice try.
And here we go to Slovakia. Robert Fico in campaing two years ago promised to reverse reformed working system. But his government only abolished some visit fees - and that's it. System is working, Slovakia is heading towards euro, there are no protests, no people are starving because of health care reform. The only problem is that right wing Slovakian reformists has had other ideas where to lead their country - next step after health care and attraction of carmakers was supposed to be reform of education system and overall improvement of Slovakian emerging economy towards more value-added, high-tech and 21st century one. Base for that was health care reform connected with other changes like tax or pension systems.
So far, there are no succesful followers in Central Europe and even Slovakian reformers are taking time for reflection in desperately divided opposition.
Path of Central Europe to succesful future is still open as well as fate of health care systems.

Useful dinosaurus of Europe

It looks like dinosaurus of European politics. OSCE, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, seems to be out of fashion when almost all European countries reguraly organise free and fair elections, when respect to human and civic rights is widespread.
But key is in the word "almost". I have realised that again while reading interview with Slovak minister of culture Marek Madaric in Slovak daily Hospodarske noviny (sister newspaper of my own Czech HN). His government pushed through parliament new law about print media which, according to Slovak publishers and OSCE expertize restricts freedom of expression. "Fact that OSCE is critical towards new print law is not surprising for me, because there were more different views in discussions with them (and our government)," said minister.
Therefore, this has struck me a lot. During last two years one could hear about OSCE quarrelling with somebody only at times of serious crisis. Russia refused OSCE election monitors, Belorussia considers OSCE as arm of Western subversion. And there was a big fuss last year ahead of parliamentary elections in Poland, when former Czech president Vaclav Havel had recommended OSCE election monitors to watch Polish elections because of hard two years of conservative-nationalistic rule. Polish prime minister at that time, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, strongly refused and spoke about external meddling into internal affairs. Irony is that OSCE monitoring election branch, ODIHR, is seated in Warsaw.
To be advised and monitored by OSCE was one of powerful instruments how to organize elections in postwar Balkans during nineties. It is regular but more symbolical tool for elections in Western countries as well as in the US. It is no shame to be monitored, meanwhile some members, namely Russia, misused OSCE mechanism. Moscow defense of Russian minorities in Baltic states was example of that.
But open, democratic and free society should not have any problems with monitoring media or elections. In postcommunist states positive OSCE assessment could help to raise credentials for such countries in transition. Only countries with authoritarian tendencies or rulers such are Belarussia, Russia or Kazachstan are constatly defending themselves against any cooperation with outside world. That was the reason why I was afraid of words of Slovakian minister. It is not that one cannot disagree with international organisation, but because OSCE is kind of last check, last resort to discuss such normalities like freedom of expression. After that comes international isolation, sanctions, bad headlines in international media, wary investors - simply problems and exclusion from family or normal European nations. Slovaks had already experienced it during nineties, during semiauthoritarian rule of Vladimir Meciar.

Fear or not fear of German-Russia friendship?

The suspicion is already not so strong like it has been during times when in Poland was government headed by Jaroslaw Kaczyński. But suspicion is still present: Germany is Troyan horse of strengthened Russia in Europe. The question is not military force, but business, economical power.
Last time when doubts where spotted easily, was during NATO summit in Bucarest two weeks ago. Proamerican newcomers to alliance from Central Europe hardly accepted that chancellor Angela Merkel de facto blocked enlargement of alliance eastwards.
The most suspicious are Poles, who have proeuropean open governement for last couple of months, but anyhow they has been very carefuly watching if anybody – by chance – is not demanding property or soil back from part of country which belongs to Poland after The Second World War.
Antipathy towards Germans is widely spread in Poland, even it is diminishing after the end of socialism. According to polls of CBOS from last September, 39 percent of Poles dislike Germans. Poles are suspicious that Germans are allied with Russians in economic projects againts the interests of Poland – prime example is pipeline Nord Stream planned to go around Poland through Baltic Sea. It reminds Poles about Molotov-Ribbentrop pact or three divisions of Poland.
Former chancellor Gerhard Schröder is sitting at executive board of Nord Stream. The same man was at the head of Germany, while export from Russia to Germany increased of fifty percent. Journalist from Economist Edward Lucas has written in his book „New Cold War“ about new relations between Russia and West – and particularly Germany: „Russia has spotted that the weakest link in the Western approach to life is inattention to the ethical and moral basis of capitalism: if only money matters, then why is the Kremlin’s money worse than anyone else’s?“
But Poles and Baltic peoples have add to this their historical experience. Any agreements between Russia and Germany are source of hard shudder. That is the reason why they want common EU energy policy, for example.
Czechs are among all postcommunist Centraleuropeans the most pragmatic ones. This attitude is very close to western one illustrated by managers of Shel or BP companies. They were stripped by the Kremlin of many of their assets but they still want to make a business in Russia because it is too big, too underdeveloped and too magnetic market. According to two-years old poll of SC&C agency, Czechs even count Germans as sympathetic nation.