I have read two interesting pieces from two interesting ladies. Naomi Klein is in her obvious doomsayer tone describing social consequencies of recent crisis through Europe and world (read here). It is short journalistic piece, therefore nobody could expect policy recommendations beside obvious "down with capitalism and capitalists". But it is worth to read it as opposit viewpoint to other beatiful lady's work - Katinka Barysch's "New Europe and the Economic Crisis" - profound analysis of where new EU members stand in crisis and what are possibilites ahead (read here).
The prospect of Central Europe in both texts seems to be very gloomy and both are certain that we are facing change of what we can call "reform paradigm": if opening economies, following EU guidelines so strictly and doing privatisation and market reforms was the right way when old EU member states will come back to the economic nationalism, when EU solidarity is questioned in numerous issues (remember recent gas crisis). All these questions should and probably would be raised and underlined during the year when 20th anniversary of "Velvet revolutions" will be celebrated.
What strikes me is that while we are discussing more or less only economical part of crisis, there is very small part of debate about society and what I consider as basic question in the crisis: trust. After entering EU the reform pressure has stopped in almost all new member states, corruption, disbelief of voters and general "bad mood" prevailed. Until recently, good economic shape could cover that, but this year we will be facing tough decisions and questions.
And to my knowledge, situation is not the same in all ten new member countries. My Estonian colleague answered my question about why situation in Estonia is not so bad like in Latvia and why there are no public protests after government decided to cut 10 percent of all state employees: "What I have understood is that in Estonian still have some sort of belief in our government, political parties etc. Even though tough budget cuts touch everyone. If you look into figures (http://www.postimees.ee/?id=76720) the political parties in the parliament enjoy roughly the same amount of support as during the elections 2 years ago. While in Latvia none of the parties in the parliament would today cross the 5% threshold. As some analysts have pointed out the differences are in transparency and the level of political corruption," has written me Kadri Kukk (another nice lady, by the way).
So what? Estonians will be again ahead as at times of reforms, because social trust and social capital is higher? Does anybody in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary belive that governing politicians, often considered corrupt and incompetent or weakened by scandals, are able to show us way out? Do we believe ourselves and each other (crucial condition for making business)?
Answer to these questions is for me crucial to understand what will be the impact of economic crisis on postcommunist members of EU and where is the future of our countries (being in EU or not).
Thank you, ladies.
sobota 7. února 2009
úterý 3. února 2009
Bizzare of Czech politics at times of EU presidency
It is a bizzarre world looking at it from Prague in these days. We have a historical chance to "play a big politics" as head of EU, meanwhile in our newsroom over heads we hear stupid debate of our deputies in parliament about Lisbon treaty, about party differencies and at the same time the world headlines are about Iran launching satellite. This is a big politics meanwhile Czech socdem opposition refuses to support foreign missions of Czech army and wants a trade-off for domestic issues.
Provinciality of Czech politics hurts. During last few years we - liberal journalists - had feeling that at least for foreign policy we could be proud of our government, defending Cuban dissidents or making issue of energy security of THE ISSUES inside the EU. Now, when we can proof some of our qualities, our politicians became a sacrifices of internal quarreling, weak government is blackmailed by opposition.
Looking back at my previous blog entry, my pessimism goes deeper and deeper: there is lack of political leadership at times of crises. As far as I know about development in other postcommunist countries, our situation is not better or worse - it is bad as bad is political stalemate in Hungary (look at interesting interview with oppositon leader Viktor Orban, who is going to be next prime minister in Financial Times), as Slovak populism or nice talks about reform without action in Donald Tusk's Poland. Our, Czech, specifics is that we are exposed to the attention of Europe because of EU presidency.
Today's debate in Czech parliament about Lisbon treaty hurts, result is not clear. This parliament session is supposed to have about 230 points. Lisbon treaty is the first one and debate goes on for fifth hour. The most probable result will be postponing vote in Lower Chamber.
Provinciality of Czech politics hurts. During last few years we - liberal journalists - had feeling that at least for foreign policy we could be proud of our government, defending Cuban dissidents or making issue of energy security of THE ISSUES inside the EU. Now, when we can proof some of our qualities, our politicians became a sacrifices of internal quarreling, weak government is blackmailed by opposition.
Looking back at my previous blog entry, my pessimism goes deeper and deeper: there is lack of political leadership at times of crises. As far as I know about development in other postcommunist countries, our situation is not better or worse - it is bad as bad is political stalemate in Hungary (look at interesting interview with oppositon leader Viktor Orban, who is going to be next prime minister in Financial Times), as Slovak populism or nice talks about reform without action in Donald Tusk's Poland. Our, Czech, specifics is that we are exposed to the attention of Europe because of EU presidency.
Today's debate in Czech parliament about Lisbon treaty hurts, result is not clear. This parliament session is supposed to have about 230 points. Lisbon treaty is the first one and debate goes on for fifth hour. The most probable result will be postponing vote in Lower Chamber.
čtvrtek 29. ledna 2009
Need for a new start twenty years after
Is it an avalanche? Or revolution? Or mother of all crises? It looks like that postcommunist countries between Baltic and Adriatic Seas are in the year of important anniversary going through test of crucial importance which they had not been facing through last twenty years.
Economy is shrinking, as well as number of jobs available, in many countries there are unpopular governments unable to push through reforms. Party systems are either extremely unstable(Poland, Lithuania), or extremely polarized and digged in, freezed with small chances to for profound change (Czechia, Hungary). Corruption, distrust and malpractice is common feature as well as what Vaclav Havel in times of crises in 1997 called "blbá nálada" - very hard to translate, maybe "bad mood" or "nought mood" of people.
Reform ethos, on which governments could base their reform effort twenty years ago, is gone. People in postcommunist countries were prepared to go through very bumpy road because they had seen light in the end of tunnel: euroatlantic integration, prosperity and better quality of life, free travel, free speech. And - in many cases - also promising politicians who were able to deliver at time.
But what people see know: in Baltics troika governments are changing as rapidly as names of parties and Prime Ministers, in Poland there are still (almost) no highways and politics is synonym for corruption, Hungary became famous for its debt and two young but uncompromising politicians who support deep division of society, in Czechia there is still 15 to 20 percent of vote blocked by the old-style communist party, which in last year's regional elections came back to power in coalitions with social democrats, in Slovakia leftwing populist bears fruits of unpopular, but unnecessary previous reforms of right, Romania after becoming EU member had descendend into political chaos and with Bulgaria both countries are synonym for mismanagement, corruption and organised crime. Picture of former Yugoslavia countries is a bit brighter, because there is no war, but Kosovo's future, as well as Macedonian or Bosnia's is still very uncertain.
And plus all this, people are coming to the streets to protest: in Bulgaria, in Latvia, in Lithuania there were already what we can call embryotic social protests - few thousands people in the streets. But picture is becoming more gloom, when one looks at Hungary or Romania or Poland - there is potential for much more serious unrest, unless politicians will unite and start to act. But that is, of course, very idealistic expectation.
Twenty years after the fall of communism we are again at turning point. At this time, we are not alone, we are part of broader picture, of globalised world. This is also the reason that now - in contrast to year of 1989 - nobody but us could give us a helping hand. We cannot expect sympathy from Brussels or Paris or Berlin or Washington, because they also are in troubles. Raising nationalism, protectionism and incapability of our leaders to look over horizon of four years term and proviciality are main worries - and problems to be solved. But there are no Havels and Walesas and Antals on the horizon.
The prospect of Central Europe in the year of commemoration is quite gloomy - and not only because GDP is contracting like crazy.
Economy is shrinking, as well as number of jobs available, in many countries there are unpopular governments unable to push through reforms. Party systems are either extremely unstable(Poland, Lithuania), or extremely polarized and digged in, freezed with small chances to for profound change (Czechia, Hungary). Corruption, distrust and malpractice is common feature as well as what Vaclav Havel in times of crises in 1997 called "blbá nálada" - very hard to translate, maybe "bad mood" or "nought mood" of people.
Reform ethos, on which governments could base their reform effort twenty years ago, is gone. People in postcommunist countries were prepared to go through very bumpy road because they had seen light in the end of tunnel: euroatlantic integration, prosperity and better quality of life, free travel, free speech. And - in many cases - also promising politicians who were able to deliver at time.
But what people see know: in Baltics troika governments are changing as rapidly as names of parties and Prime Ministers, in Poland there are still (almost) no highways and politics is synonym for corruption, Hungary became famous for its debt and two young but uncompromising politicians who support deep division of society, in Czechia there is still 15 to 20 percent of vote blocked by the old-style communist party, which in last year's regional elections came back to power in coalitions with social democrats, in Slovakia leftwing populist bears fruits of unpopular, but unnecessary previous reforms of right, Romania after becoming EU member had descendend into political chaos and with Bulgaria both countries are synonym for mismanagement, corruption and organised crime. Picture of former Yugoslavia countries is a bit brighter, because there is no war, but Kosovo's future, as well as Macedonian or Bosnia's is still very uncertain.
And plus all this, people are coming to the streets to protest: in Bulgaria, in Latvia, in Lithuania there were already what we can call embryotic social protests - few thousands people in the streets. But picture is becoming more gloom, when one looks at Hungary or Romania or Poland - there is potential for much more serious unrest, unless politicians will unite and start to act. But that is, of course, very idealistic expectation.
Twenty years after the fall of communism we are again at turning point. At this time, we are not alone, we are part of broader picture, of globalised world. This is also the reason that now - in contrast to year of 1989 - nobody but us could give us a helping hand. We cannot expect sympathy from Brussels or Paris or Berlin or Washington, because they also are in troubles. Raising nationalism, protectionism and incapability of our leaders to look over horizon of four years term and proviciality are main worries - and problems to be solved. But there are no Havels and Walesas and Antals on the horizon.
The prospect of Central Europe in the year of commemoration is quite gloomy - and not only because GDP is contracting like crazy.
úterý 9. září 2008
Eastern Davos - and how to get there
Economic forum in Polish Krynica has nickname „Eastern Davos“. Maybe it is too ambitious to call it like that but each year, when I decide how and by which way to travel to this quiet spa resort on eastern side of Tatra mountains, I experience an exercise in development of Central Europe.
It is not about the quality of discussions, which are numerous and one needs to divide himself to be at every interesting panel, it is not about receptions, which are opulent and rich, it is not about two thousands of interesting people from business, politics and culture. It is about roads.
Organizers offer transport from Krakow. But to get there by plane is almost impossible if you do not book your ticket six months before, what is for journalist hard to do. By train it is seven hours (if train goes according to schedule, which is an exception, not rule). And then three hours in bus. Therefore I vote for car.
Then detailed study of actual situation of road construction comes. And this is that development game. Forget about Poland. They only talk about building highways, their roads are bumpy and way how they drive is nothing but suicidal. I gave them many chances, but nice roads end ten kilometers behind border in Bialsko Biala.
Northeastern corner of Czech Republic is not very well reachable, because highways end hundred kilometres before border and have been under construction many years already, accompanied by corruption charges.
Slovaks are building at least highway to Zilina, where giant Kia auto company plant is situated, but to go further eastward is adventurous on narrow roads with hundreds of trucks – beside about fifty kilometers of finished highway around Liptovsky Mikulas. It is highway without external connection, that is interesting. This year I was surprised that construction site has changed and early I will be ready to go about eighty kilometers between Ruzomberok and Poprad on highway. Great! (If I survive these trucks).
But how to overcome traffic jams in between (this year around Czech Trinec and Slovak Cadca and Ruzomberok was particularly hard)? This is question in which no ultramodern GPS will help. Simply, constructions are everwhere as well as jams and as well as trucks full of goods for our developing consumerism.
Other special feature is crossing the borders. Czech-Slovak borders is still natural mountaineous barier against invasion. Beside highway from Brno to Bratislava there is no modern connection. How trucks between automotive companies in both countries will move is real mystery. Regional roads will probably look like Czech D1 main highway, connecting Prague and Brno. It is constantly under repair and constantly overcrowded by trucks from all over the Europe using Czechia as cheap transit country.
So, on one side there is development and construction going on, on the other signs of improvement are not seen on horizon.
Then finaly after nice part of journey comes around Tatry from Poprad north on, but – where to cross to Poland? If I would not have „secret“ information that nearby in Muszyna there is new „Visegrad“ bridge and crossing built, exhausted, I would have to go additional hundred kilometres. From both Polish and Slovak side is very hard to find new crossing, there are no signs on road and two years old map of Slovakia does show nothing.
So tired, exhausted and enriched by new finesses of Czech, Slovak and Polish drivers, I am in Krynica, happy and looking forward, because I (and other few hundreds) are eager to discuss new things in our bumpy, unconnected region which is under (re)construction. I find my hotel, open box with invitations and – first two invite me to panels about building highways in public-private partnership and transport at the service of business. Welcome to Krynica!
It is not about the quality of discussions, which are numerous and one needs to divide himself to be at every interesting panel, it is not about receptions, which are opulent and rich, it is not about two thousands of interesting people from business, politics and culture. It is about roads.
Organizers offer transport from Krakow. But to get there by plane is almost impossible if you do not book your ticket six months before, what is for journalist hard to do. By train it is seven hours (if train goes according to schedule, which is an exception, not rule). And then three hours in bus. Therefore I vote for car.
Then detailed study of actual situation of road construction comes. And this is that development game. Forget about Poland. They only talk about building highways, their roads are bumpy and way how they drive is nothing but suicidal. I gave them many chances, but nice roads end ten kilometers behind border in Bialsko Biala.
Northeastern corner of Czech Republic is not very well reachable, because highways end hundred kilometres before border and have been under construction many years already, accompanied by corruption charges.
Slovaks are building at least highway to Zilina, where giant Kia auto company plant is situated, but to go further eastward is adventurous on narrow roads with hundreds of trucks – beside about fifty kilometers of finished highway around Liptovsky Mikulas. It is highway without external connection, that is interesting. This year I was surprised that construction site has changed and early I will be ready to go about eighty kilometers between Ruzomberok and Poprad on highway. Great! (If I survive these trucks).
But how to overcome traffic jams in between (this year around Czech Trinec and Slovak Cadca and Ruzomberok was particularly hard)? This is question in which no ultramodern GPS will help. Simply, constructions are everwhere as well as jams and as well as trucks full of goods for our developing consumerism.
Other special feature is crossing the borders. Czech-Slovak borders is still natural mountaineous barier against invasion. Beside highway from Brno to Bratislava there is no modern connection. How trucks between automotive companies in both countries will move is real mystery. Regional roads will probably look like Czech D1 main highway, connecting Prague and Brno. It is constantly under repair and constantly overcrowded by trucks from all over the Europe using Czechia as cheap transit country.
So, on one side there is development and construction going on, on the other signs of improvement are not seen on horizon.
Then finaly after nice part of journey comes around Tatry from Poprad north on, but – where to cross to Poland? If I would not have „secret“ information that nearby in Muszyna there is new „Visegrad“ bridge and crossing built, exhausted, I would have to go additional hundred kilometres. From both Polish and Slovak side is very hard to find new crossing, there are no signs on road and two years old map of Slovakia does show nothing.
So tired, exhausted and enriched by new finesses of Czech, Slovak and Polish drivers, I am in Krynica, happy and looking forward, because I (and other few hundreds) are eager to discuss new things in our bumpy, unconnected region which is under (re)construction. I find my hotel, open box with invitations and – first two invite me to panels about building highways in public-private partnership and transport at the service of business. Welcome to Krynica!
středa 13. srpna 2008
How to live with bear on your backyard - Georgian lessons
Smoke is disappearing from Georgian sky - at least from part of that, while there are reports of looting and burning of Georgian villages close to South Ossetia. At least, heads are cooling on both sides and analysts are trying to write first lessons learned from short, intensive, unnecessary and to certain extend stupid war (if wars are not stupid at all) on the South Caucasus. There are interesting views from BBC or Financial Times, for example.
I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.
First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.
Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US a
ntimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.
Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.
Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.
Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.
Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.
I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.
First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.
Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US a
ntimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.
Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.
Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.
Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.
středa 6. srpna 2008
In the Olympic shadow monster is coming
It is coming invisibly, in quiet, in the shadow of Olympic games. But it comes decisively. It is not communism as one can guess. It is economical crisis. We in Central Europe with our strong curriencies and conscious politicians still think that we are an island of stability at the sea of turbulencies. But in Baltics they already know what is it overheated economy after credit crunch.
Poland, Slovakia, Czechia live through times of unprecedent prosperity. But now there is BIG warning: Germany, decisive market for all of us, is contracting - almost about one percent in the second quarter, as preliminary estimations say, for instance in today's Financial Times.
We live through big fiesta, until now. There is a question if our economies are prepared for any kind of slowing down, hard landing is more a question for our friends in Latvia and Estonia. But what is clear is that time for reforms is over. In Slovakia, they keep what was done under Mr. Dzurinda's governments, nothing else.
Czechia has been swalowed by political infighting within weak coalition government. Reforms, light ones, were done only in health care. Now we approach regional elections and then there will be EU presidency. It is not time for reforms even if economy would be booming.
Poland has got lost in inaction of promising liberal government. No major reform law was put under parliament scrutiny during first eight months of Mr. Tusk government. Prime minister and his Civic platform party are extremely popular mainly because of extreme unpopularity of strongest opposition party, Law and justice of Kaczynskis brothers.
EU money is pouring in, banks are wary to lend to poor borrowers, credit crunch is not the issue here. But with many car makers and low salaries we became a workshop of Europe. With strong currencies even the advantage of cheap labour has disappeared. And our politicians are able only to talk about knowledge based economy, not to push through any proposals and laws, not to reform overburdened public budgets.
I am afraid that Centraleuropean fiesta is coming to an end. But (almost) nobody dares. Shopping in Germany got now so cheap!
Poland, Slovakia, Czechia live through times of unprecedent prosperity. But now there is BIG warning: Germany, decisive market for all of us, is contracting - almost about one percent in the second quarter, as preliminary estimations say, for instance in today's Financial Times.
We live through big fiesta, until now. There is a question if our economies are prepared for any kind of slowing down, hard landing is more a question for our friends in Latvia and Estonia. But what is clear is that time for reforms is over. In Slovakia, they keep what was done under Mr. Dzurinda's governments, nothing else.
Czechia has been swalowed by political infighting within weak coalition government. Reforms, light ones, were done only in health care. Now we approach regional elections and then there will be EU presidency. It is not time for reforms even if economy would be booming.
Poland has got lost in inaction of promising liberal government. No major reform law was put under parliament scrutiny during first eight months of Mr. Tusk government. Prime minister and his Civic platform party are extremely popular mainly because of extreme unpopularity of strongest opposition party, Law and justice of Kaczynskis brothers.
EU money is pouring in, banks are wary to lend to poor borrowers, credit crunch is not the issue here. But with many car makers and low salaries we became a workshop of Europe. With strong currencies even the advantage of cheap labour has disappeared. And our politicians are able only to talk about knowledge based economy, not to push through any proposals and laws, not to reform overburdened public budgets.
I am afraid that Centraleuropean fiesta is coming to an end. But (almost) nobody dares. Shopping in Germany got now so cheap!
pátek 25. července 2008
Obama as Messiah in Europe. False or right?
"Ich bin ein Berliner."
"Mr. Gorbachov, tear down that wall."
"In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the only way, the only way to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."
These are three American quotes from Berlin. First two are coldwar symbols of free world, the third one is a message in globalized century. Yes, I know, it is hard to compare highly symbolical and already many times interpreted words of JFK and Ronald Reagan with fresh and not yet digested words of 46-old Senator who might be once President of the USA. But this will not be quote for historical textbooks, I am almost sure.
Europeans have been desperate to see and hear Barack Obama like Messiah. There were about 200 000 people gathered, more than at any US rally, says Politico (my favourite online source on US politics). Europe seems to be fed up by Mr. Bush and his handling of international affairs.
But will there be any difference, if Oval office will be occupied for the first time in American history by Afroamerican?
It seems to me that not so much. Obama called in Berlin for closer cooperation between US and Europe. What does that mean for Europe? More European soldiers and helicopters in Afghanistan and Darfur, unified European position in dealing with China or Russia, stronger European voice in trade talks. I doubt that crowd in Berlin, where we could see posters like "Obama for Kanzler", was aware of what is the content of message which nicely speaking man in front of them is telling.
America has its own problems nowadays, nicely described in leading article of the last issue of The Economist. It is hard to imagine that new US president will have as a priority to improve his relations with Europe, especialy in case that leftleaning Obama should deal with rightleaning majority of European leaders, who are absorbed by their own problems with Lisbon treaty, immigrants and economic slowdown.
I have serious doubts that there are going to be a big differencies in the US-European relations after November. We live in a world, where globalisation is forcing leaders of Western world to defensive rather than offensive positions, we can see that for example in business where more and more companies from emerging economies is buying good old brands in "old world". Obama does not seem to offer any new revolutionary idea how to reverse this trend.
Even Obama is now darling not only of American, but also of European media, he still has brand of anti-free trade politicians with suspiciously often changed opinions. We should be aware of him as a leader, even he could do better than George W. Bush.
And final note for European left: Many people like to compare Obama to JFK, even he did not make A QUOTE in Berlin. But do not forget that was JFK who increased number of US soldiers in Vietnam from 800 advisors to 16 000 combat troops and who did not dare to get engaged with Soviet Union over missile base in Cuba.
"Mr. Gorbachov, tear down that wall."
"In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the only way, the only way to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."
These are three American quotes from Berlin. First two are coldwar symbols of free world, the third one is a message in globalized century. Yes, I know, it is hard to compare highly symbolical and already many times interpreted words of JFK and Ronald Reagan with fresh and not yet digested words of 46-old Senator who might be once President of the USA. But this will not be quote for historical textbooks, I am almost sure.
Europeans have been desperate to see and hear Barack Obama like Messiah. There were about 200 000 people gathered, more than at any US rally, says Politico (my favourite online source on US politics). Europe seems to be fed up by Mr. Bush and his handling of international affairs.
But will there be any difference, if Oval office will be occupied for the first time in American history by Afroamerican?
It seems to me that not so much. Obama called in Berlin for closer cooperation between US and Europe. What does that mean for Europe? More European soldiers and helicopters in Afghanistan and Darfur, unified European position in dealing with China or Russia, stronger European voice in trade talks. I doubt that crowd in Berlin, where we could see posters like "Obama for Kanzler", was aware of what is the content of message which nicely speaking man in front of them is telling.
America has its own problems nowadays, nicely described in leading article of the last issue of The Economist. It is hard to imagine that new US president will have as a priority to improve his relations with Europe, especialy in case that leftleaning Obama should deal with rightleaning majority of European leaders, who are absorbed by their own problems with Lisbon treaty, immigrants and economic slowdown.
I have serious doubts that there are going to be a big differencies in the US-European relations after November. We live in a world, where globalisation is forcing leaders of Western world to defensive rather than offensive positions, we can see that for example in business where more and more companies from emerging economies is buying good old brands in "old world". Obama does not seem to offer any new revolutionary idea how to reverse this trend.
Even Obama is now darling not only of American, but also of European media, he still has brand of anti-free trade politicians with suspiciously often changed opinions. We should be aware of him as a leader, even he could do better than George W. Bush.
And final note for European left: Many people like to compare Obama to JFK, even he did not make A QUOTE in Berlin. But do not forget that was JFK who increased number of US soldiers in Vietnam from 800 advisors to 16 000 combat troops and who did not dare to get engaged with Soviet Union over missile base in Cuba.
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