It is hard to be blogger and journalist in classical media at the same time. Especialy when your country is going through historical change, which is not trackable on the first sight. Too much work, too much thoughts going through your had and too much doubts about the result.
This week Czech government signed historical agreement about antimissile radar being stationed in Czech Republic. Of course, there will be problem for government coalition, which rely on three deputies, to push agreement through parliament, but Prime Minister Topolanek has showed many times he and his team are skilful political pragmatics.
Historical moment is going on under the surface of daily news. If US government wants to have part of strategic project to be stationed in Central Europe, therefore it is means huge geopolitical shift - and Russians have reason to be angry: from their point of view they are loosing Central Europe geostrategicaly (energy dependence and FSB agents remain).
Quarreling with Poles about Patriots is just a game, Poles are petty traders as usual, they need a good bargain for domestic political purposes. But finaly, at least what I have heard from insiders on Polish political scene, they will accept US conditions and base with interceptors.
So, what remains? To persuade Czech social democrats (at least few of them) to support radar agreement in parliament, maybe as exchange for Lisbon treaty- Yes, this is POLITICAL BARGAIN. Czech "conservatives" have their doubts about Lisbon, Czech "socialists" about radar base. There are regional elections in November and US presidential ones. Czechs will not be able to make a compromise until then as well as the left will be waiting if - just in case - Barack Obama will not postpone or erase radar base plans at all.
Only between mid-November and mid-December there is small window of opportunity to make something with Lisbon and radar. This will be the end of history(cal moment) of shifting balance in Central Europe.
čtvrtek 10. července 2008
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