Economic forum in Polish Krynica has nickname „Eastern Davos“. Maybe it is too ambitious to call it like that but each year, when I decide how and by which way to travel to this quiet spa resort on eastern side of Tatra mountains, I experience an exercise in development of Central Europe.
It is not about the quality of discussions, which are numerous and one needs to divide himself to be at every interesting panel, it is not about receptions, which are opulent and rich, it is not about two thousands of interesting people from business, politics and culture. It is about roads.
Organizers offer transport from Krakow. But to get there by plane is almost impossible if you do not book your ticket six months before, what is for journalist hard to do. By train it is seven hours (if train goes according to schedule, which is an exception, not rule). And then three hours in bus. Therefore I vote for car.
Then detailed study of actual situation of road construction comes. And this is that development game. Forget about Poland. They only talk about building highways, their roads are bumpy and way how they drive is nothing but suicidal. I gave them many chances, but nice roads end ten kilometers behind border in Bialsko Biala.
Northeastern corner of Czech Republic is not very well reachable, because highways end hundred kilometres before border and have been under construction many years already, accompanied by corruption charges.
Slovaks are building at least highway to Zilina, where giant Kia auto company plant is situated, but to go further eastward is adventurous on narrow roads with hundreds of trucks – beside about fifty kilometers of finished highway around Liptovsky Mikulas. It is highway without external connection, that is interesting. This year I was surprised that construction site has changed and early I will be ready to go about eighty kilometers between Ruzomberok and Poprad on highway. Great! (If I survive these trucks).
But how to overcome traffic jams in between (this year around Czech Trinec and Slovak Cadca and Ruzomberok was particularly hard)? This is question in which no ultramodern GPS will help. Simply, constructions are everwhere as well as jams and as well as trucks full of goods for our developing consumerism.
Other special feature is crossing the borders. Czech-Slovak borders is still natural mountaineous barier against invasion. Beside highway from Brno to Bratislava there is no modern connection. How trucks between automotive companies in both countries will move is real mystery. Regional roads will probably look like Czech D1 main highway, connecting Prague and Brno. It is constantly under repair and constantly overcrowded by trucks from all over the Europe using Czechia as cheap transit country.
So, on one side there is development and construction going on, on the other signs of improvement are not seen on horizon.
Then finaly after nice part of journey comes around Tatry from Poprad north on, but – where to cross to Poland? If I would not have „secret“ information that nearby in Muszyna there is new „Visegrad“ bridge and crossing built, exhausted, I would have to go additional hundred kilometres. From both Polish and Slovak side is very hard to find new crossing, there are no signs on road and two years old map of Slovakia does show nothing.
So tired, exhausted and enriched by new finesses of Czech, Slovak and Polish drivers, I am in Krynica, happy and looking forward, because I (and other few hundreds) are eager to discuss new things in our bumpy, unconnected region which is under (re)construction. I find my hotel, open box with invitations and – first two invite me to panels about building highways in public-private partnership and transport at the service of business. Welcome to Krynica!
úterý 9. září 2008
středa 13. srpna 2008
How to live with bear on your backyard - Georgian lessons
Smoke is disappearing from Georgian sky - at least from part of that, while there are reports of looting and burning of Georgian villages close to South Ossetia. At least, heads are cooling on both sides and analysts are trying to write first lessons learned from short, intensive, unnecessary and to certain extend stupid war (if wars are not stupid at all) on the South Caucasus. There are interesting views from BBC or Financial Times, for example.
I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.
First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.
Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US a
ntimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.
Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.
Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.
Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.
Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.
I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.
First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.
Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US a
ntimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.
Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.
Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.
Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.
středa 6. srpna 2008
In the Olympic shadow monster is coming
It is coming invisibly, in quiet, in the shadow of Olympic games. But it comes decisively. It is not communism as one can guess. It is economical crisis. We in Central Europe with our strong curriencies and conscious politicians still think that we are an island of stability at the sea of turbulencies. But in Baltics they already know what is it overheated economy after credit crunch.
Poland, Slovakia, Czechia live through times of unprecedent prosperity. But now there is BIG warning: Germany, decisive market for all of us, is contracting - almost about one percent in the second quarter, as preliminary estimations say, for instance in today's Financial Times.
We live through big fiesta, until now. There is a question if our economies are prepared for any kind of slowing down, hard landing is more a question for our friends in Latvia and Estonia. But what is clear is that time for reforms is over. In Slovakia, they keep what was done under Mr. Dzurinda's governments, nothing else.
Czechia has been swalowed by political infighting within weak coalition government. Reforms, light ones, were done only in health care. Now we approach regional elections and then there will be EU presidency. It is not time for reforms even if economy would be booming.
Poland has got lost in inaction of promising liberal government. No major reform law was put under parliament scrutiny during first eight months of Mr. Tusk government. Prime minister and his Civic platform party are extremely popular mainly because of extreme unpopularity of strongest opposition party, Law and justice of Kaczynskis brothers.
EU money is pouring in, banks are wary to lend to poor borrowers, credit crunch is not the issue here. But with many car makers and low salaries we became a workshop of Europe. With strong currencies even the advantage of cheap labour has disappeared. And our politicians are able only to talk about knowledge based economy, not to push through any proposals and laws, not to reform overburdened public budgets.
I am afraid that Centraleuropean fiesta is coming to an end. But (almost) nobody dares. Shopping in Germany got now so cheap!
Poland, Slovakia, Czechia live through times of unprecedent prosperity. But now there is BIG warning: Germany, decisive market for all of us, is contracting - almost about one percent in the second quarter, as preliminary estimations say, for instance in today's Financial Times.
We live through big fiesta, until now. There is a question if our economies are prepared for any kind of slowing down, hard landing is more a question for our friends in Latvia and Estonia. But what is clear is that time for reforms is over. In Slovakia, they keep what was done under Mr. Dzurinda's governments, nothing else.
Czechia has been swalowed by political infighting within weak coalition government. Reforms, light ones, were done only in health care. Now we approach regional elections and then there will be EU presidency. It is not time for reforms even if economy would be booming.
Poland has got lost in inaction of promising liberal government. No major reform law was put under parliament scrutiny during first eight months of Mr. Tusk government. Prime minister and his Civic platform party are extremely popular mainly because of extreme unpopularity of strongest opposition party, Law and justice of Kaczynskis brothers.
EU money is pouring in, banks are wary to lend to poor borrowers, credit crunch is not the issue here. But with many car makers and low salaries we became a workshop of Europe. With strong currencies even the advantage of cheap labour has disappeared. And our politicians are able only to talk about knowledge based economy, not to push through any proposals and laws, not to reform overburdened public budgets.
I am afraid that Centraleuropean fiesta is coming to an end. But (almost) nobody dares. Shopping in Germany got now so cheap!
pátek 25. července 2008
Obama as Messiah in Europe. False or right?
"Ich bin ein Berliner."
"Mr. Gorbachov, tear down that wall."
"In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the only way, the only way to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."
These are three American quotes from Berlin. First two are coldwar symbols of free world, the third one is a message in globalized century. Yes, I know, it is hard to compare highly symbolical and already many times interpreted words of JFK and Ronald Reagan with fresh and not yet digested words of 46-old Senator who might be once President of the USA. But this will not be quote for historical textbooks, I am almost sure.
Europeans have been desperate to see and hear Barack Obama like Messiah. There were about 200 000 people gathered, more than at any US rally, says Politico (my favourite online source on US politics). Europe seems to be fed up by Mr. Bush and his handling of international affairs.
But will there be any difference, if Oval office will be occupied for the first time in American history by Afroamerican?
It seems to me that not so much. Obama called in Berlin for closer cooperation between US and Europe. What does that mean for Europe? More European soldiers and helicopters in Afghanistan and Darfur, unified European position in dealing with China or Russia, stronger European voice in trade talks. I doubt that crowd in Berlin, where we could see posters like "Obama for Kanzler", was aware of what is the content of message which nicely speaking man in front of them is telling.
America has its own problems nowadays, nicely described in leading article of the last issue of The Economist. It is hard to imagine that new US president will have as a priority to improve his relations with Europe, especialy in case that leftleaning Obama should deal with rightleaning majority of European leaders, who are absorbed by their own problems with Lisbon treaty, immigrants and economic slowdown.
I have serious doubts that there are going to be a big differencies in the US-European relations after November. We live in a world, where globalisation is forcing leaders of Western world to defensive rather than offensive positions, we can see that for example in business where more and more companies from emerging economies is buying good old brands in "old world". Obama does not seem to offer any new revolutionary idea how to reverse this trend.
Even Obama is now darling not only of American, but also of European media, he still has brand of anti-free trade politicians with suspiciously often changed opinions. We should be aware of him as a leader, even he could do better than George W. Bush.
And final note for European left: Many people like to compare Obama to JFK, even he did not make A QUOTE in Berlin. But do not forget that was JFK who increased number of US soldiers in Vietnam from 800 advisors to 16 000 combat troops and who did not dare to get engaged with Soviet Union over missile base in Cuba.
"Mr. Gorbachov, tear down that wall."
"In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the only way, the only way to protect our common security and advance our common humanity."
These are three American quotes from Berlin. First two are coldwar symbols of free world, the third one is a message in globalized century. Yes, I know, it is hard to compare highly symbolical and already many times interpreted words of JFK and Ronald Reagan with fresh and not yet digested words of 46-old Senator who might be once President of the USA. But this will not be quote for historical textbooks, I am almost sure.
Europeans have been desperate to see and hear Barack Obama like Messiah. There were about 200 000 people gathered, more than at any US rally, says Politico (my favourite online source on US politics). Europe seems to be fed up by Mr. Bush and his handling of international affairs.
But will there be any difference, if Oval office will be occupied for the first time in American history by Afroamerican?
It seems to me that not so much. Obama called in Berlin for closer cooperation between US and Europe. What does that mean for Europe? More European soldiers and helicopters in Afghanistan and Darfur, unified European position in dealing with China or Russia, stronger European voice in trade talks. I doubt that crowd in Berlin, where we could see posters like "Obama for Kanzler", was aware of what is the content of message which nicely speaking man in front of them is telling.
America has its own problems nowadays, nicely described in leading article of the last issue of The Economist. It is hard to imagine that new US president will have as a priority to improve his relations with Europe, especialy in case that leftleaning Obama should deal with rightleaning majority of European leaders, who are absorbed by their own problems with Lisbon treaty, immigrants and economic slowdown.
I have serious doubts that there are going to be a big differencies in the US-European relations after November. We live in a world, where globalisation is forcing leaders of Western world to defensive rather than offensive positions, we can see that for example in business where more and more companies from emerging economies is buying good old brands in "old world". Obama does not seem to offer any new revolutionary idea how to reverse this trend.
Even Obama is now darling not only of American, but also of European media, he still has brand of anti-free trade politicians with suspiciously often changed opinions. We should be aware of him as a leader, even he could do better than George W. Bush.
And final note for European left: Many people like to compare Obama to JFK, even he did not make A QUOTE in Berlin. But do not forget that was JFK who increased number of US soldiers in Vietnam from 800 advisors to 16 000 combat troops and who did not dare to get engaged with Soviet Union over missile base in Cuba.
čtvrtek 17. července 2008
Russian revenge for Czech radar
So here we are: A day after Czech Republic signed aggreement with the US about stationing of antimissile radar Czech oil companies has been witnessing decrease of input of oil in the pipe Drushba from Russia. Official explanation is as usual: technical problems. But there is no doubt that we are punished by Kremlin for our highly sensitive and political decision to underline our alliance with the US.
Fortunately, we have another pipe from West which could easily cover Czech consuption as last week has shown. But Czech companies now have to search for oil at other markets and buy it for slightly higher prices than long time contracted Russian oil from Drushba.
We are aware of Lithuanian story from 2006 with "technical problems" with their part of Drushba, after they have privatized Mazeiku refinery to Polish PKN Orlen and not to Russian Lukoil. That pipe is still empty even Lithuania has been offering help to Russians to repaire technical problems (at least Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas recently has told me that).
Czech officials stress that at stake there is Russian position as reliable business partner for EU countries, but we have not heard any strong word from Brussels up to now to support that cause.
EU common energy policy is not existing as well as "political solidarity", it seems to me. Russians are playing well they usual "divide and rule" policy, especialy in energy. They prefer bilateral talks and contracts than dealing with EU as one entity - if there is any EU common interest in energy at all. Silence from Brussels (at least in media) seems to point out that decision by Czech government to host American radar and strengthen our transatlantic relations is right.
Fortunately, we have another pipe from West which could easily cover Czech consuption as last week has shown. But Czech companies now have to search for oil at other markets and buy it for slightly higher prices than long time contracted Russian oil from Drushba.
We are aware of Lithuanian story from 2006 with "technical problems" with their part of Drushba, after they have privatized Mazeiku refinery to Polish PKN Orlen and not to Russian Lukoil. That pipe is still empty even Lithuania has been offering help to Russians to repaire technical problems (at least Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas recently has told me that).
Czech officials stress that at stake there is Russian position as reliable business partner for EU countries, but we have not heard any strong word from Brussels up to now to support that cause.
EU common energy policy is not existing as well as "political solidarity", it seems to me. Russians are playing well they usual "divide and rule" policy, especialy in energy. They prefer bilateral talks and contracts than dealing with EU as one entity - if there is any EU common interest in energy at all. Silence from Brussels (at least in media) seems to point out that decision by Czech government to host American radar and strengthen our transatlantic relations is right.
čtvrtek 10. července 2008
How to make A HISTORY by the Czech way
It is hard to be blogger and journalist in classical media at the same time. Especialy when your country is going through historical change, which is not trackable on the first sight. Too much work, too much thoughts going through your had and too much doubts about the result.
This week Czech government signed historical agreement about antimissile radar being stationed in Czech Republic. Of course, there will be problem for government coalition, which rely on three deputies, to push agreement through parliament, but Prime Minister Topolanek has showed many times he and his team are skilful political pragmatics.
Historical moment is going on under the surface of daily news. If US government wants to have part of strategic project to be stationed in Central Europe, therefore it is means huge geopolitical shift - and Russians have reason to be angry: from their point of view they are loosing Central Europe geostrategicaly (energy dependence and FSB agents remain).
Quarreling with Poles about Patriots is just a game, Poles are petty traders as usual, they need a good bargain for domestic political purposes. But finaly, at least what I have heard from insiders on Polish political scene, they will accept US conditions and base with interceptors.
So, what remains? To persuade Czech social democrats (at least few of them) to support radar agreement in parliament, maybe as exchange for Lisbon treaty- Yes, this is POLITICAL BARGAIN. Czech "conservatives" have their doubts about Lisbon, Czech "socialists" about radar base. There are regional elections in November and US presidential ones. Czechs will not be able to make a compromise until then as well as the left will be waiting if - just in case - Barack Obama will not postpone or erase radar base plans at all.
Only between mid-November and mid-December there is small window of opportunity to make something with Lisbon and radar. This will be the end of history(cal moment) of shifting balance in Central Europe.
This week Czech government signed historical agreement about antimissile radar being stationed in Czech Republic. Of course, there will be problem for government coalition, which rely on three deputies, to push agreement through parliament, but Prime Minister Topolanek has showed many times he and his team are skilful political pragmatics.
Historical moment is going on under the surface of daily news. If US government wants to have part of strategic project to be stationed in Central Europe, therefore it is means huge geopolitical shift - and Russians have reason to be angry: from their point of view they are loosing Central Europe geostrategicaly (energy dependence and FSB agents remain).
Quarreling with Poles about Patriots is just a game, Poles are petty traders as usual, they need a good bargain for domestic political purposes. But finaly, at least what I have heard from insiders on Polish political scene, they will accept US conditions and base with interceptors.
So, what remains? To persuade Czech social democrats (at least few of them) to support radar agreement in parliament, maybe as exchange for Lisbon treaty- Yes, this is POLITICAL BARGAIN. Czech "conservatives" have their doubts about Lisbon, Czech "socialists" about radar base. There are regional elections in November and US presidential ones. Czechs will not be able to make a compromise until then as well as the left will be waiting if - just in case - Barack Obama will not postpone or erase radar base plans at all.
Only between mid-November and mid-December there is small window of opportunity to make something with Lisbon and radar. This will be the end of history(cal moment) of shifting balance in Central Europe.
středa 18. června 2008
EU: closer to people or getting lost
Bloggers are not supposed to have holidays, even my ones were a bit forced under the circumstancies inside my family. While I was taking care of my two-years old daughter, Ireland decided about the future of Lisbon treaty, therefore influencing the future life of my sweetheart. No, I am do not want my daughter to by politician but she will be living in different Europe and different world. And the shape of that Europe and its role in the world is decided now.
It looks like Central Europe wants to use its influence on EU till last moment and till last eurosceptic voice. Czechs are together with Poles the other troublemakers after Irish. Lisbon treaty is not very popular document and it is not only because it is too thick to read through. It is too far away from ordinary people, which is the most probable reason why European politicians are afraid to go through Irish experience of referendum.
EU is going through phase of growing gap between so called elites and voters. It is not just feeling in eurosceptical Czechia, but through the continent. Influence of Brussels bureaucracy is not understandable for ordinary Czechs, Spaniards, Brits, Poles or Latvians. They only see free movement (not in Germany and Austria), they see some money, but for many of them even EU money are too abstract and to hard to get. All other visions and revisions are too distant for them.
EU should now look for ideas which are closer to people, for concrete projects like energy security and prices, like security issues, like credit crises. Bring EU closer to people, stop talking about vision of Europe, start discuss reality would be my advice to Brussels politicians and bureaucrats.
Of course, it is easier said than done, it is on the edge of dangerous populism, but it seems to me that this is the only way out of clench into which EU got itself through Irish referendum and possible Czech and Polish rejection of Lisbon treaty. Otherwise there is danger that EU will freeze itself into endless debates and its role in the world would be decreasing by even more quicker pace than it is doing so now.
It looks like Central Europe wants to use its influence on EU till last moment and till last eurosceptic voice. Czechs are together with Poles the other troublemakers after Irish. Lisbon treaty is not very popular document and it is not only because it is too thick to read through. It is too far away from ordinary people, which is the most probable reason why European politicians are afraid to go through Irish experience of referendum.
EU is going through phase of growing gap between so called elites and voters. It is not just feeling in eurosceptical Czechia, but through the continent. Influence of Brussels bureaucracy is not understandable for ordinary Czechs, Spaniards, Brits, Poles or Latvians. They only see free movement (not in Germany and Austria), they see some money, but for many of them even EU money are too abstract and to hard to get. All other visions and revisions are too distant for them.
EU should now look for ideas which are closer to people, for concrete projects like energy security and prices, like security issues, like credit crises. Bring EU closer to people, stop talking about vision of Europe, start discuss reality would be my advice to Brussels politicians and bureaucrats.
Of course, it is easier said than done, it is on the edge of dangerous populism, but it seems to me that this is the only way out of clench into which EU got itself through Irish referendum and possible Czech and Polish rejection of Lisbon treaty. Otherwise there is danger that EU will freeze itself into endless debates and its role in the world would be decreasing by even more quicker pace than it is doing so now.
Přihlásit se k odběru:
Příspěvky (Atom)
