úterý 20. května 2008

US bases: Mild Czechs, hard Poles

It was a hard return from Balkans to Central Europe. While I was traveling through region I covered ten years ago and filling my rather sceptical views with more optimistic data about development in Serbia and Kosovo, there was going on drama around US antimissile shield bases in Czechia and Poland.
Czechia did not sign already finished agreement, because Ms. Condoleezza Rice did not find time to come to Prague as planned on May 5. Polish negotiatiors have smuggled into media news about US refusing to fulfill all Polish wishes about modernisation of Polish army. Is really something getting wrong with US military presence in Central Europe?
Not exactly. Czech government is already decided to support radar base even there is strong resistance among public and site of future US radar is at the moment occupied by so called peace activists. Two of them in Prague are even on hunger strike, but for cabinet of Prime Minister Topolanek there is now only one task: how to push ratification of treaty with US through parliament. It is not easy task, but doable. Canceling visit to Prague Ms. Rice did not help much, Czech government is looking for any signal of help with PR from US administration, but Americans are silent. And then there is question, if Czech attitude towards radar issue was the right one. Should we be like Poles?
Poles are watching that very closely. They say: we will not change our positions and demands to which Washington did not respond satisfactorily. Put in words of one of Polish diplomats, there is now chance that in Poland there will be US base is fifty to fifty there will be no one. Poles are a bit fed up with helping US in Afghanistan, in Irak, in EU or at other more or less visible fronts and getting anything for that - no special contracts in Irak, no offsets for US F-16s, no special treatment in defense cooperation. Their diplomatic skills, once called by unnamed EU diplomat as "Polish diplomatic brutality", are well known and personality of minister Radoslaw Sikorski is their biggest asset in dealing with Washington politics.
Therefore there will be drama yet to see during summer months, even some Polish journalists call negotiations "game". It will be fun as well as interesting to see it and maybe Czech politicians will get from Polish hardship some food for thought.

neděle 11. května 2008

Do Serbs understand what is going on?

Recent parliamentary elections are clear illustrations of the name of this blog: between EU and Russia, between open politics and strange behind-the-scenese dealing. I was traveling through Serbia and Kosovo for last couple of days and comparing recent situation with what I had experienced ten or twelve years ago. It was a big deja vu and also a big experience on how you can lose good opportunity for development.
And now Serbs try to catch up with Europe. It is a difficult way, because part of their politicians seems to be persuaded that there are other ways how to develop than to cooperate with EU.
They are wrong. To make a pact with Russia seems to fit with tradition Serbian thinking that Russians are "our best friend". But if Serbs look into the history, they were always betrayed buy Russians or misused. Slobodan Milosevic got nothing from his close relationship with Moscow except some Russian arms.
Therefore it is only part of Serbian mythology that Moscow will support them. Yes, Russians will but only at case if will fit them. Remember victourious travel of Russian troops to Prishtina airport in June 1999? Where are Russians now? They left after situation was explored for their PR purposes.
Well, I hope that Serbs will finally understand how to get their country from isolation and not being tied up forever by historical myths around Kosovo. This entry is being written on Sunday, just hours before announcment of election results, so I look forward to see, how they voted with you.