čtvrtek 29. ledna 2009

Need for a new start twenty years after

Is it an avalanche? Or revolution? Or mother of all crises? It looks like that postcommunist countries between Baltic and Adriatic Seas are in the year of important anniversary going through test of crucial importance which they had not been facing through last twenty years.
Economy is shrinking, as well as number of jobs available, in many countries there are unpopular governments unable to push through reforms. Party systems are either extremely unstable(Poland, Lithuania), or extremely polarized and digged in, freezed with small chances to for profound change (Czechia, Hungary). Corruption, distrust and malpractice is common feature as well as what Vaclav Havel in times of crises in 1997 called "blbá nálada" - very hard to translate, maybe "bad mood" or "nought mood" of people.
Reform ethos, on which governments could base their reform effort twenty years ago, is gone. People in postcommunist countries were prepared to go through very bumpy road because they had seen light in the end of tunnel: euroatlantic integration, prosperity and better quality of life, free travel, free speech. And - in many cases - also promising politicians who were able to deliver at time.
But what people see know: in Baltics troika governments are changing as rapidly as names of parties and Prime Ministers, in Poland there are still (almost) no highways and politics is synonym for corruption, Hungary became famous for its debt and two young but uncompromising politicians who support deep division of society, in Czechia there is still 15 to 20 percent of vote blocked by the old-style communist party, which in last year's regional elections came back to power in coalitions with social democrats, in Slovakia leftwing populist bears fruits of unpopular, but unnecessary previous reforms of right, Romania after becoming EU member had descendend into political chaos and with Bulgaria both countries are synonym for mismanagement, corruption and organised crime. Picture of former Yugoslavia countries is a bit brighter, because there is no war, but Kosovo's future, as well as Macedonian or Bosnia's is still very uncertain.
And plus all this, people are coming to the streets to protest: in Bulgaria, in Latvia, in Lithuania there were already what we can call embryotic social protests - few thousands people in the streets. But picture is becoming more gloom, when one looks at Hungary or Romania or Poland - there is potential for much more serious unrest, unless politicians will unite and start to act. But that is, of course, very idealistic expectation.
Twenty years after the fall of communism we are again at turning point. At this time, we are not alone, we are part of broader picture, of globalised world. This is also the reason that now - in contrast to year of 1989 - nobody but us could give us a helping hand. We cannot expect sympathy from Brussels or Paris or Berlin or Washington, because they also are in troubles. Raising nationalism, protectionism and incapability of our leaders to look over horizon of four years term and proviciality are main worries - and problems to be solved. But there are no Havels and Walesas and Antals on the horizon.
The prospect of Central Europe in the year of commemoration is quite gloomy - and not only because GDP is contracting like crazy.