How to live with bear on your backyard - Georgian lessons

Smoke is disappearing from Georgian sky - at least from part of that, while there are reports of looting and burning of Georgian villages close to South Ossetia. At least, heads are cooling on both sides and analysts are trying to write first lessons learned from short, intensive, unnecessary and to certain extend stupid war (if wars are not stupid at all) on the South Caucasus. There are interesting views from BBC or Financial Times, for example.

I would offer slightly different perspective of citizen of country which next week will commemorate 40th anniversary of Soviet occupation.

First, there is already anecdote in Czech press: Indian chieftain is sitting with white businessman and telling him: "According to our native calendar, August is the month of rolling tanks." Specific Czechoslovak experience provoked many people to express their solidarity with Georgia even they know that it was Georgian forces who, responding to South Ossetian provocations, started this short war. Emotions are very strong.

Second, do not rely on your Western allies even they promised you help, especialy in nice words. Heads of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (prime minister) together with Ukrainian president has flown to dangerous war zone in one plane to express support to their Georgian colleague. This specific form of human shields was the only offer from the part of NATO and EU to Tbilisi, which aspires to join both organisation. USA have offered only consolation in words of vicepresident Dick Cheney, who warned Russia of "consequencies", whatever that means. Especialy this attitude (do not irritate Russian bear too much and if, it is your own responsibility) is dangerous in connection with negotiations about US antimissile bases in Czech Republic and Poland. Could we really get US help and cover if anything bad will happen? As illustration, look at this Cartoon from The Independent daily. It is not easy to be US ally at the edge of newly growing Russian empire. Even new reports has revealed that Tbilisi did not hear to US warning about Russian provocations.

Third: EU is as weak as are the member states. French president Nicolas Sarkozy went to Moscow with peace plan, but his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev had halted military operations before negotiations with EU acting president. Russia has freedom of choice where and what to do and is very determined. EU is in crisis around the Lisbon Treaty and anyway is acting as bunch of nation states, not as one entity with clear united vision. Italy has even proposed to form coalition against too antirussian sentiments within EU. In this sense, one can agree with euroscepticism of Czech president Vaclav Klaus that EU cannot be more than free trade zone.

Fourth: Small states on the outskirts of renewed Russian empire does not have any chance against Russia one by one, but only as a group. Crazy could be action of Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic presidents, but it is against Russian "bilateral" negotiations policy. It is question how is Kremlin impressed by such group, but at least it sends a signal. This we cannot say about Brussels, Paris, London or Berlin, even I can understand that we are in the middle of holiday season.

Fifth: To have other than Russian pipelines from Central Asia is not secure anymore. We have to speed up development of noncarbon fuels in the long term, built new pipes from anywhere else in the midterm and save in the short term.

Sixth and last: To deal with Russia needs patience, goodwill, humour, craft and other instruments than army. Russians are very good in doing 19th century politics with 20th century means, but we are in 21st century. Therefore we have to rethink our policies towards Russia again and again. This is not very encouraging but so is the harsh reality of living, working and being between Brussels and Moscow.