středa 25. března 2009

Czech crisis explained with personal details

Some friends from Poland, Macedonia, Brussels and elswhere has asked me what will happen now in Czech Republic after government was voted out. To a big extent result of vote in parliament was surprise to everybody, therefore there is still not clear plan B. The most probable scenario is that government will govern in demission until the end of Czech EU presidency and meanwhile both biggest political parties, Topolanek's ODS and oposition social democrats (CSSD) will find any agreement on untimely elections. At least, this is wish of Mr. Paroubek, head of social democrats.
Many depends on what will president Klaus do and also what party ODS do, because due to constitution, there are three chances to form government, but without clear deadlines, therefore government in demission could govern many, many months.
For Topolanek and ODS would be better to have untimely elections this summer, popularity is rising due to EU presidency, seen in Czechia more less like success.
For Paroubek, autumn or spring next year are better and meanwhile there might be, according to his plan (supported most probably by president) some kind of weak ODS government or simple technical cabinet which will not be able to make any important decisions about privatisations or reforms in health care or anything like that.
Problem is that there is not clear majority in parliament, thereforem for solution there is necessary both big parties to agree on (to have early elections is very hard to agree technically). Tuesday's vote was result of rebellion of two Green party MPs (two ladies) and two ODS dissidents, one of them, Vlastimil Tlusty, was even minister in the first Topolanek government, but they disaggreed. Rumours say that present fiance and mother of his son, also MP from ODS, was previously fiance of Mr. Tlusty, then you can guess about real personal reasons behind that.
Other ODS dissident voice, Jan Schwippel, has decided after talk with President Klaus, who is opposing proEU stance of Mr. Topolanek and they also personaly disaggree on many things (and Mom of Mr. Schwippel, who was advising him, is head of ODS local bureau at region where Mr. Tlusty is from)
As result, you can see that failure of government is result of weak majority and rebellion inside government camp, not result of any consistent policy of leftist opposition.

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