sobota 7. února 2009

Crisis and trust. Does Estonia has answer to all of us?

I have read two interesting pieces from two interesting ladies. Naomi Klein is in her obvious doomsayer tone describing social consequencies of recent crisis through Europe and world (read here). It is short journalistic piece, therefore nobody could expect policy recommendations beside obvious "down with capitalism and capitalists". But it is worth to read it as opposit viewpoint to other beatiful lady's work - Katinka Barysch's "New Europe and the Economic Crisis" - profound analysis of where new EU members stand in crisis and what are possibilites ahead (read here).

The prospect of Central Europe in both texts seems to be very gloomy and both are certain that we are facing change of what we can call "reform paradigm": if opening economies, following EU guidelines so strictly and doing privatisation and market reforms was the right way when old EU member states will come back to the economic nationalism, when EU solidarity is questioned in numerous issues (remember recent gas crisis). All these questions should and probably would be raised and underlined during the year when 20th anniversary of "Velvet revolutions" will be celebrated.

What strikes me is that while we are discussing more or less only economical part of crisis, there is very small part of debate about society and what I consider as basic question in the crisis: trust. After entering EU the reform pressure has stopped in almost all new member states, corruption, disbelief of voters and general "bad mood" prevailed. Until recently, good economic shape could cover that, but this year we will be facing tough decisions and questions.
And to my knowledge, situation is not the same in all ten new member countries. My Estonian colleague answered my question about why situation in Estonia is not so bad like in Latvia and why there are no public protests after government decided to cut 10 percent of all state employees: "What I have understood is that in Estonian still have some sort of belief in our government, political parties etc. Even though tough budget cuts touch everyone. If you look into figures (http://www.postimees.ee/?id=76720) the political parties in the parliament enjoy roughly the same amount of support as during the elections 2 years ago. While in Latvia none of the parties in the parliament would today cross the 5% threshold. As some analysts have pointed out the differences are in transparency and the level of political corruption," has written me Kadri Kukk (another nice lady, by the way).
So what? Estonians will be again ahead as at times of reforms, because social trust and social capital is higher? Does anybody in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary belive that governing politicians, often considered corrupt and incompetent or weakened by scandals, are able to show us way out? Do we believe ourselves and each other (crucial condition for making business)?
Answer to these questions is for me crucial to understand what will be the impact of economic crisis on postcommunist members of EU and where is the future of our countries (being in EU or not).
Thank you, ladies.

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