středa 11. února 2009

Lost in realpolitics: the end of radar in Czechia

Hillary Clinton has said to Czech Foreing Minister Karel Schwarzenberg that issue of US antimissile defense program (and radar in Czechia) could be "reconsidered". Unofficially, Czech diplomats were told to be prepared for cancellation of plan for US base on Czech soil.
Next day Russian FM Sergej Lavrov has told to Schwarzenberg that Czechia and Poland (hosts of possible US missile defense facilities) are "Eastern Europe, not Central according to UN classification".
Being president of EU, it is not easy job for Czech diplomacy. Being message carrier between superpowers is even much worse (all the stuff is around Iran and cooperation between the US and Russia over Iranian nuclear program). But being nothing - in terms of international politics -, being only passive player waiting for decision of others, being shifted by decision of others, this is true tragedy.
Czech diplomats maybe had been playing wrong cards last year persuading themselves and journalists as well that question of US radar in Czechia is irreversible even after Democrat would win in the US. It looks like that Czechs overplayed (as many times during history) their willingness to attach themselves to any superpower: to France (and Europe in general) after 1918, to Soviet Union after 1945.
Now the US, last resort, is falling short of expectations of Czech ruling political elite. Disappointment hurts, especialy to those who invested heavily their political capital into the struggle over US base in Central Europe. There will be no special relations on link Washington-Prague or Washington-Warszaw. Only realpolitics.
Reapolitics. It was Henry Kissinger who said: "To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal." He was right, through radar (missile defense) issue Czech politicians, diplomats and journalists, who were last two years persuading Czech public that US base on Czech soil is huge gain, are given a lesson of realpolitics.
Maybe it is too early to write down another ally, Sarkozy's France is still much worse as well as Putin's Russia. But at times of global crises, of still weak Obama's administration is better to be prepared for worse and than be surprised pleasantly. Maybe, conservative ayatollahs will win June's Iranian elections so strongly and centrifuges in Natanz will work so perfectly that question of radar on Czech soil will get back sooner that we expect. But reapolitics is real.

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